"with the end-user experience as sole differentiator"
Does Kinect not count as a hardware differentiator? For this reason alone MS has the be the favorite among dedicated game boxes.
Nintendo's been the most innovative historically but they've already shown their hand and sadly for them it's holding a ginormous controller that I'm 97% sure is a refurbished Sega Gamegear.
The only question left about Nintendo is who wins the exclusive rights to Mario/Link and co. It's probably worth the most to Microsoft but Apple has a lot of cash overseas they don't know what to do with.
Never underestimate Nintento. When they showed off the Wii Remote back at the TGS, nobody was stunned. Everyone was puzzled or dissapointed, the talks about who will get the rights to their IP was already going on... which was kinda stupid because Nintendo sits on one of the largest piles of liquid money in the gaming industry... they could sit out a whole console generation and still produce another one... don't count them out so fast.
Nintendo's strategy made sense though. A bunch of people didn't want to hear that the gaming paradigm might be changing, but that's besides the point. Personally, I didn't know if they were going to win or lose with their strategy, but I thought that it made sense.
Right now I'm confused about their decision to abandon the Wiimote though. If they're upset that they didn't get as many 3rd-party titles, IIRC that had more to do with the hardware constraints of the platform (I remember it being described as two GameCubes strapped together).
> they could sit out a whole console generation and still produce
> another one... don't count them out so fast.
Isn't that the story of Sega though? The Saturn was a flop, and then the DreamCast wasn't enough to rescue them from becoming a software-only company.
I believe the idea is that the Wiimote will continue to be used alongside the new controller in e.g. local multiplayer games. At least, that's what they had set up in some of their E3 demos last year.
Apple purchasing nintendo would be interesting. I don't think Apple has anything to offer in terms of gaming, but they know how to manufacture great hardware (and for less than competitors), and they know how to market and distribute content.
(2) If Wii U flops worldwide (as many expect) then Nintendo's default option is to go the Sega route and just produce software.
(3) Unlike Sega however, Nintendo's IP is worth substantial market share so I'd expect a major bidding war for exclusivity. Exclusivity would also allow Nintendo to continue to develop for a single mobile and home platform as they do now.
I'm not sure that apple itself has nothing to offer.
I have a feeling it is only a matter of time before apple releases something that is of serious interest to gamers.
It may not be a games console as such but think something with a large screen , an app store and some new input method that lends itself well to gaming.
Apple's announcement of what will likely be the iPad 3 coincides with GDC. I would think an iPad 3 + 1080p AppleTV is a compelling console replacement. I bet that is their move: to make your TV a monitor for the iPad. That solves the interface issue with TV in one fell swoop.
I think this could work well for some categories of games, for example strategy games but there are still many popular games this wouldn't work so well for at all(driving games, fps etc)
So either they will focus on a different category of gamer/games or there will have to be some other more game specific input device such as a controller.
Does Kinect not count as a hardware differentiator? For this reason alone MS has the be the favorite among dedicated game boxes.
Nintendo's been the most innovative historically but they've already shown their hand and sadly for them it's holding a ginormous controller that I'm 97% sure is a refurbished Sega Gamegear.
The only question left about Nintendo is who wins the exclusive rights to Mario/Link and co. It's probably worth the most to Microsoft but Apple has a lot of cash overseas they don't know what to do with.