That was my hang up too. Then when he did get round to the definition it's clear he needs a bit more than a sentence to qualify what he means: because call me a gambler but Black Swan's sound pretty much like something we should avoid planning for or risk getting paranoid.

(and even though I did start reading his book and do sort of know what he's on about I still cant get away from that feeling. Why cant he say "lets not be arrogant and high risk" without having to qualify it with IMO a poor reason (surely the sentence alone should be enough):(