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Pulley | Real Estate & Construction | full-time | remote or in-person (SF) | withpulley.com

Pulley helps real estate developers break ground sooner and build more housing by securing construction permits 10x faster. Today, permitting takes months, is different across 19k+ jurisdictions, and involves dozens of forms and thousands of rules. We’re building the first software platform for developers & builders to get permits for any project type, in any jurisdiction, faster.

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If interested, reach out to founders[at]withpulley.com or see my email in my profile.


You can't help the homeless if the workers who help them can't afford to live near the people they're trying to help.

> This is one reason why people are interested in things like UBI

Can you elaborate on how UBI would help? Homelessness in high-opportunity low-housing-supply regions is not a problem of individuals not having enough cash, and neither is the inability of non-profit workers to live in these places. If we handed everyone cash, we would simply be writing a check to the landlords in high-opportunity regions like the Bay Area, because everyone would still be bidding up prices on the same housing supply.

The core problem on both sides of this is that these places, the Bay area in particular, make it extremely difficult and expensive to expand the housing supply to mitigate this problem, and the article alludes to this:

> We have the empty lot to do it in and we hired an architect but it came out to cost so much we postponed

At the end of the day, high rents push people on the margin onto the streets and they make it expensive to house the people who need to help them. Solutions that purport to dodge this problem with cash handouts (UBI, renter's credits, etc.) will only help landlords unless we also ease supply restrictions.

That said, for people who are already living on the streets, the solutions are even more complicated, as there are often confounding issues like mental illness, substance abuse, etc. that require shelter space and intervention by non-profit workers (and then we're back to the housing supply problem).


> You can't help the homeless if the workers who help them can't afford to live near the people they're trying to help.

It’s certainly true that some fraction of non-profit work is hands-on social work, and yes, those people do need to live near the people they serve. But I think it’s fair to say that non-profits should think really hard about who really needs to live in NYC/SF/etc. versus the degree to which they’re just subsidizing the lifestyle choices of college-educated white workers who could do the same work from somewhere else.

> Can you elaborate on how UBI would help? Homelessness in high-opportunity low-housing-supply regions is not a problem of individuals not having enough cash, and neither is the inability of non-profit workers to live in these places.

Let’s not overstate the “opportunities” available in places like SF and NYC. Lower income people live there because there are a lot of service jobs for unskilled workers. But it’s not like those people are going to be able to work their way up from the mail room at Facebook or JP Morgan. What you have is a situation where these workers have to be in SF or NYC because that’s where the service jobs are, and where landlord can capture a big fraction of the rent that the government might subsidize.

UBI addresses that problem by decoupling wages from location. Someone receiving UBI can move from SF to Bakersfield. That increases their standard of living while limiting the cost to the government relative to trying to support that person in SF of NYC. 1 in 12 people in SF broke their leases during pandemic. Imagine what would happen if the government told everyone tomorrow they they’d get $1,000 per month guaranteed, which they could draw upon either in SF or in Des Moines. It would have the double effect of reducing the demand for housing in places like SF and NYC, and enabling that demand to be diverted to places where building new supply might be much easier.


> Lower income people live there because there are a lot of service jobs for unskilled workers

> What you have is a situation where these workers have to be in SF or NYC because that’s where the service jobs are

Well, yes, I intentionally was including everyone, not just people working six-figure office jobs: everyone else also benefits significantly from living in a place with a large and growing job market. Growth in high-paying white-collar jobs generally leads to even faster growth in the wages and number of less-skilled jobs in the same place.

Historically, there is also a wage premium for unskilled workers in larger metros - today much of that surplus flows to landlords instead, thanks again to under-building of housing in those areas. Even in SF, wages for the lowest-income workers have grown slightly faster than CoL over the last ~decade (thanks in part to the effect of rent-control for long-time tenants).

> Someone receiving UBI can move from SF to Bakersfield.

This is true iff UBI is generous enough that many of the people who work those service jobs would choose to live on it without being employed - at $1000/month, I suspect that would not be very many. If people want to be employed, living near the much larger and growing job market of the Bay Area would remain much more attractive than living in Bakersfield. The fundamental issue would be unchanged AFAICT.


> I'm going to stand by my statement that the future is not in San Francisco

I don't see why this follows. :)

SF is a beautiful and diverse city and a hub for (at least one) of the biggest and most innovative industries in the world. This is often true in spite of the Bay area's government, but imo that's the good news: government is fixable.

Rather than giving up I try to channel my frustration into volunteering and donating to groups that are working on these problems: YIMBY Action (yimbyaction.org) has clubs throughout the Bay Area that advocate for easing restrictions on building housing and transit, operating small businesses, etc; Seamless (seamlessbayarea.org) also works on improving transit governance throughout the Bay Area.


Not only could we not build it today, we can barely modify it today: https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/heatherknight/article/Co...

> But despite not a single resident registering a complaint about the antenna work — a modern-day miracle! — getting the permit from the city's Planning Department took two years. Approval came just as special crews arrived to do the work.

> “It was held up for no good reason,” Hyams said, echoing a common gripe about our city's slow Planning Department, which mirrors the slowness of just about every department.


We should just close down the planning department or change its mission to mandate very very fast development.


> change its mission to mandate very very fast development

While no one's going quite this far yet (alas), the mayor's approach actually isn't too far from this, e.g. for housing:

> The new measure would require an approval process of no longer than six months for projects that meet existing zoning rules...[1]

or for SMBs:

> the ballot measure would require that permit applications for storefront uses that are allowed by the current zoning be reviewed within 30 days, compared to what can sometimes be months of review [2]

Unfortunately the first one is postponed indefinitely because COVID made signature collection impossible, but the second will be on the ballot in November.

[1] https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/san-francisco/sf-mayor... [2] https://sfmayor.org/article/mayor-london-breed-introduces-ba...


Incidentally, these sorts of things (deed restrictions/covenants) are also what preceded zoning as we know it today. They're just more difficult to enforce because you can't control what happens on the edge of your covenant-protected neighborhood.

This paper has a really good summary of the history here: https://www.dartmouth.edu/~wfischel/Papers/02-03.pdf

> While it would be kinda neat -- as an experiment -- to see how a city would develop without zoning, Houston sure as heck isn't that example.

If you're counting covenants as "zoning", I'm not really sure that such a thing is possible without a major change in property right law (except for the parking and height restrictions, which obviously have a big influence on structures everywhere and should go away IMO).


Do you have source for calling it an "influx"? According to the city's annual survey (from 2017)[1], 70% of the current homeless population lived in SF county before becoming homeless, 21% lived in another CA county (which may include, say, Berkeley or Oakland), and only 10% came from outside CA. I'd hardly call 10% of the current homeless population an influx.

[1] http://hsh.sfgov.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2017-SF-Poin...


Isn’t this based on self-answered surveys and not hard verifiable information to establish residency? The homeless and activists/nonprofits advocating on their behalf have an incentive to make it look like they’re mostly local.


Is there any systematic evidence of the oft-repeated idea that homeless are being bussed in from every corner of the country? Besides an anecdotal case or two? If not, why should we believe that it happens with any degree of frequency?

Do you believe that estimates of the total counts of homeless people might be more or less accurate, since there's no supposed incentive for activists to discount it? SF's homelessness per capita is actually not particularly high compared to other major cities, which is not at all what you would expect if homeless were swarming en masse to SF from those other places: https://medium.com/hatchbeat/homelessness-a-tale-of-three-ci... . What's really high in SF and other West Coast cities is the percent of unsheltered homeless. It may be that it only seems like there are more of them because they are more visible because besides SF's dislike of building housing they also don't build sufficient homeless shelters: https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Bay-Area-homeless-uns...


If you talk to homeless people (at least in Seattle), you'll find that almost all of those you speak with moved here from elsewhere. Bad data is worse than no data, and these surveys are bad data intended to skew the conversation - they have a very obvious flaw, which is that there is no verification of the identity of homeless people and where they lived before. And when most people around you have the same anecdotal observations and the data says otherwise, it is yet another sign the data needs to be scrutinized or tossed out until something better comes along.

> If not, why should we believe that it happens with any degree of frequency?

Why should we believe they are from here by default? We should assume they are not until it is proven, and therefore feel no obligation to create more levies against local law-abiding tax-paying residents to support out-of-town homeless, or permanently nomadic lifestyles, or willful drug abusers who often commit petty property crimes to feed their addictions. We should only provide that aid if we know they are long-term residents of the area, and otherwise enforce laws against them strictly.

> It may be that it only seems like there are more of them because they are more visible because besides SF's dislike of building housing

I'm sorry but if someone moved to SF or Seattle within the last 7 years, they really should have displayed more personal responsibility and known what they're signing up for cost-wise and whether they can afford it. These are some of the most desirable places to live on the planet, and are rightfully expensive. The cities are not obligated to change their character or density to accommodate others who want to move there but can't afford it, just like I don't have a default right to live on the beach in Maui. And as such, I feel these cities don't have to do anything other than enforce the law except when someone is a proven long-term resident who was swept up in increasing costs.


Nevada sent at least 500 homeless people to Los Angeles and San Francisco[0].

[0] https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/10/nevada-settles-...


> Isn’t this based on self-answered surveys and not hard verifiable information to establish residency?

True, though collecting hard verifiable proof of prior residency from homeless folks seems beyond what can be expected from a one-day citywide survey. :)

If you know of a survey that did collect that information, I'd certainly be interested in the results.

> The homeless and activists/nonprofits advocating on their behalf have an incentive to make it look like they’re mostly local.

I suppose a high out-of-county population might make locals stingier, but getting caught providing bad data also seems like a pretty bad outcome for any of the local non-profits that helped conduct the survey.


No political angle, but to expand on the data from that report (pages 22-23):

* Sixty-nine percent (69%) ... were living in San Francisco at the time they most recently became homeless... 8% had lived in San Francisco for less than one year.

* Of their previous living arrangements: 32% with friends or family, 11% in subsidized housing, 8% in a hotel, 6% incarcerated, 3% in hospital, 3% in foster care.

So it's probably more accurate to think of at most 50% of the population as having come from stable housing situations in SF.


+1. Read the series earlier this year and really enjoyed it.


> An interesting article, but I don't agree with the author's conclusion that rent control is worse than the California-style alternative. Is San Francisco currently better off than New York? No rent control there, and prices are even higher than NYC.

We have rent control on units occupied before Costa-Hawkins went into effect (1995 I believe). SF builds very very few units per year, so this covers a very high percentage of the units in the city.


It also depends on the ownership model of the property. If the landlord only owns a single unit (e.g. an individual condo in a building, or a single-family home), the financial aspect of rent control doesn't apply.


Wow, that's a throwback. It's amazing how little things like that can get you started tinkering.

I remember the excitement when my old distro of choice (Mandriva) added compiz support, and then it turned out to be so difficult to get it working (also on an Inspiron, incidentally).

Trying to get the kernel modules for Virtualbox working also took an ungodly amount of time for me when I was just starting to tinker with this stuff.


This is an interesting point. I wonder if there's enough public data to figure that out.

I have heard that some forms of Chinese protectionism are a little more subtle: apparently, the government requires foreign companies manufacturing in China to buy batteries from the domestic Chinese battery industry. Only Chinese companies can buy from the (better, cheaper) foreign companies. I don't remember where I read this though.


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