Do you know if the guy who was arrested actually tried to steal something? Did you see it happen? One of the questions I have about this whole thing is, did they just select someone and charge them with something for hostage leverage or did he actually do something?
Also, in regards to the prior post you were responding to, did you consider that your drunken tour group was targeted by the government? If I were looking to get a hostage by getting someone to step over an invisible line I might give the group free booze and make the environment seem relaxed till it wasn't relaxed any more.
I don't want to get into too much detail on this out of respect for Otto. I wasn't there when he took the poster down, but I definitely believe that he did.
Also, no invisible lines were crossed - we were told very specifically before arriving in NK by the tour company that under no circumstances should we go to the staff-only floor of the hotel and that people had gotten in trouble for going there previously (it's moderately infamous). My memory of that is hazy, but it may even have been in response to a question about that floor from Otto. As I said in another comment, I really don't think that the NK government is interested in oppressing tourists for no reason.
That's how these things always go (15 years is the usual "sentence"). Assuming that the US is willing to play ball, they'll start negotiating now and eventually trade him for a visit from the director of the CIA or some rice or whatever. AFAIK no American since the Korean war has actually served a sentence from the DPRK.
Also, in regards to the prior post you were responding to, did you consider that your drunken tour group was targeted by the government? If I were looking to get a hostage by getting someone to step over an invisible line I might give the group free booze and make the environment seem relaxed till it wasn't relaxed any more.