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If they had just scraped ~205 images, they would have a > 50% chance of getting a repeat.


Indeed, by the "birthday paradox." And, by the "coupon collector's problem," the expected time to have seen all 30,000 images is about n*log(n) ~= 310,000 random images.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coupon_collector's_problem




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