> On Monday 10th February 2020 something historical happened. For the first time, the market price of electricity fell below zero in Finland.(...) While this single day was a very windy one...
I feel I should point out that "a very windy day" is a big understatement. February 10, 2020 was the day when storm Sabine arrived in northern Europe. In Germany, all medium and long distance trains stopped (electric trains, btw), and plenty of people stayed inside. Lots of closed schools, too.
I don't necessarily disagree with the article's central points. But picking up the one outlier in which there's ridiculous amounts of wind and entire countries are working at half capacity seems naive at best.
I don't actually have a clue about this stuff but I think wind turbines actually won't produce any power when the wind is too strong because they might break or something.
Modern wind turbines can angle their wings in a way that they can produce in conditions that would have required a shutdown 15 years ago.
With this storm control the turbines lineally increase the resistance and are only shut down when the wind speed reaches more than 34 m/s as a 10 minute average. That's 122km/h. [0]
The recent storm reached these levels at times, but didn't sustain them for longer periods over larger areas.
We don't really have to speculate, since energy production data is available [0]. There certainly was a lot of energy produced by wind turbines. About the same as last week (also quite windy). But the "entire countries are working at half capacity" doesn't seem to be valid, at last I don't see a dip in power consumption.
Notably these graphs show that Germany was exporting quite a lot of power on the 10th, but was still burning gas, brown coal and hard coal in large quantities at the same time. Also nuclear, which I don't mind as much of the others, but still Germany has decided to phase it out so it seems Germany still needs more renewables.
True, but if you look at an entire country like Germany, only about 10% of the turbines will be in an area where the wind is too strong as the storm passes through, the others will still produce...
Some probably has to do as blades/axis could break due to stress, which there are videos of turbines with malfunctioning brakes spinning out of control and breaking.
Mostly wind turbines have issues with frequency as you don't want to change/adjust frequency too much (adds to cost) to that of the main grid they only generate when within acceptable frequency ranges and internal equipment is able to compensate.
Names are being unified actually. The Dutch meteorological institute now cooperates with the British and Irish institutes for naming via the EUMETNET system.
There are now two regions in Europe where names are decided in cooperation: West, and Southwest.
West is Ireland, United Kingdom, Netherlands, and Belgium, where storms tend to originate in the West.
Southwest is the Iberian peninsula and France.
A third region (Southeast) is being set up for the Mediterranean.
Every region has its own list of names, but when a storm is first named in one region, the other regions will use that name instead of assigning their own (if the storm crosses regions).
This means that everyone called this storm Ciara, except for the Germans. Germany is an exception, and has its own (commercial) naming system at the moment.
In seriousness, wasn't Storm Ciara named by Met Éireann ? that was certainly my impression, given that most people in the UK struggled to pronounce it. So there is some unification between The Met offices of Ireland and the UK with regard to naming.
To 'raise awareness' of weather events, as if one might not notice them otherwise. To be less cynical, people might pay more attention to weather warnings if they are named storms? Not sure how long that effect will stick if we have a named storm twice a month! I think you might not be far wrong saying it's about grabbing headlines.
In my home it definitely works. We say "Wow, a NAMED storm is coming tomorrow". We say it in a half joking tone, because the naming thing is a bit quirky, but we do pay more attention and are more careful when it's named.
This is not ridiculous at all to point that, those kind of event will be common as more intermittent renewable come into power, because they are all correlated in Europe.
I feel this article is missing the forest for the trees:
> German electricity consumers paid 80 million euros in tariffs to get 8 million euros worth of wind power to the market.
> There is simply no point to make any market-driven investments in Germany; the tariffs are simply too large compared to the market value of electricity.
> (...)
> This might not be a problem if “getting more renewables” is the end-goal one prefers, but I think the goal should be decreasing emissions.
That is the stated end-goal. The subsidies are (overly) high so that lots of renewable energy production/infrastructure is built instead of whatever might be more profitable otherwise. While this is related to eletricity production (payout per MWh etc.), the actual building part is what is ecouraged.
You can of course argue whether that it is a good goal to pick, but to me this sounds not like an unintended "problem" but rather as the subsidies achieving exactly what they intended to.
Creating more renewable energy is pointless unless it reduces/replaces the use of fossil fuels. Having more energy than we need is useless, and there's an environmental footprint to even the greenest wind farm.
The point the article is making is that because of the way the renewable industry is being funded (from taxes on electricity consumption), consumers are opting to continue burning fossil fuels rather then use electricity.
This means that the supply of electricity is greater than demand for it, and prices go below zero.
This has two knock-on effects:
1. Investment in electricity production is guided by government policy goals and support, rather than actual demand. The only source of revenue is government redistribution of energy taxes, and that can change quickly depending on government policy. This is not sustainable, there is no incentive here to produce efficient, long-lasting energy production infrastructure. There is only an incentive to maximise government subsidy payouts in the short term.
2. Germany is producing more energy than it needs, and producing energy (from any source) has a negative environmental impact. These policies that were intended to preserve the environment and reduce fossil fuel use are actually causing more environmental damage and preserving fossil fuel use.
Of course, this only considers domestic consumption, and specifically heating. It may be that the policies do better in other areas.
> Creating more renewable energy is pointless unless it reduces/replaces the use of fossil fuels.
It does.
> The point the article is making is that because of the way the renewable industry is being funded (from taxes on electricity consumption), consumers are opting to continue burning fossil fuels rather then use electricity.
No, it doesn't. Renewable energy has a systematic preference and its share in electricity production has risen from 6% (in 2000) to 42% (in 2019).
> Investment in electricity production is guided by government policy goals and support, rather than actual demand
That's always the case. Energy policy is a government task. No nuclear would be build without MASSIVE government support and government demand.
Germany actually created an energy market, which before did not exist, since electricity production and distribution was in the hand of 4 big companies, each having a full monopoly in a large region.
> Germany is producing more energy than it needs
It doesn't. Far from. Also Germany is importing energy. Lots.
> reduce fossil fuel use are actually causing more environmental damage and preserving fossil fuel use.
This is not what is happening. The goal is to have more than 85% renewable energy for electricity production in 2050.
EDIT: My data is a bit outdated, they did significantly reduce they reliance on hard coal. Lignite use (the worst kind of fossil fuel...) stayed about the same and they use more gas. But still, renewable mostly replaced nuclear.
Fossil fuel usage is significantly going down and adding gas power plants for very agile backup for renewable makes sense, too.
Keep in mind that the Energiewende is a long term project for rebuilding the whole energy landscape in an industrialized country of more than 80 Million people and one of the larger economies in the world. The time scale is 50 years from 2000 upto 2050. Even the current point where we are at 42% of renewable energy (up from 6% in 2000) for electricity was unbelievable 20 years ago - for example given that Germany does not have much hydro-electric capacity. From 'the grid would collapse' to 'Germany will be losing all industry' everything was claimed.
Germany has massive overcapacity in electricity production capabilities - even though a bunch of nuclear power plants have been closed. Many gas power plants were not profitable and were idling. This has changed a bit and coal got more expensive, so it was increasingly leaving the market.
Whenever renewable is available, it pushes a lot of other sources out of the market. In the current months there were a lot of days where wind was the major source of electricity for the whole of Germany. For example in the windy days from Tuesday 28th Jan until Saturday 1st Feb the wind electricity share climbed from 47% on Tuesday to 61% on Saturday. Other sources either leave the market or more gets exported.
> This is not what is happening. The goal is to have more than 85% reneable energy for electricity production in 2050.
I believe the point was that, because of the subsidies that are included in the price for electricity, that electricity isn't used for what it could be because it's more expensive than fossil-fuel options.
Even if there was 100% renewable energy for electricity production in 2050, that wouldn't help with emissions that stem from heating unless you'd also make people heat with electricity. And to do that, you'd need to lower the prices (or raise the prices of alternatives).
There is not really a separate price for fossil fuel electricity. And renewable energy has preference: if renewable energy is available, it will be used with preference.
> Even if there was 100% renewable energy for electricity production in 2050, that wouldn't help with emissions that stem from heating unless you'd also make people heat with electricity. And to do that, you'd need to lower the prices (or raise the prices of alternatives).
That's right. In a future with large electricity surplus it makes sense to switch to electricity for heating. To make that attractive new price models are needed.
Currently another goal is to increase heating efficiency and cheap heating prices would go against it. When we switch to electricity we want to make sure that the heating is max efficient. Different from France, where electricity for heating is cheap and is used very inefficiently.
> There is not really a separate price for fossil fuel electricity. And renewable energy has preference: if renewable energy is available, it will be used with preference.
Sure, sure, the issue is that you can use electricity or fossil fuels for heating. If the prices are massively different, people cannot afford to go green.
Having super high prices for consumers while essentially subsidizing industry seems like a problematic approach, and one that primarily hits the lower classes, as a higher electricity bill will very much directly affect their bottom line. Combining this with a subsidy policy framework for renewables that also primarily the upper middle & upper class profit from, this looks more like redistribution via market.
> Sure, sure, the issue is that you can use electricity or fossil fuels for heating.
You can't. Fossil fuels are still used for electricity, too and there is not enough cheap electricity for heating. If you want to bring people from relatively cheap gas to expensive electricity (the free electricity claim is just nonsense) that would be massive investments, while the consumer already pays for the move into renewable energy for electricity production, which without heating still needs to scale to replace more fossil and nuclear. If we want to have the consumer to pay for new heating systems and electricity distribution for heating on a larger scale, then this will be difficult...
It's simply not the case that one lowers the price for electricity (who pays for that?) and consumers will switch on their electrical heating systems. There is simply no large scale infrastructure for that.
It might even be better to create gas from electricity and deliver that to the customer... Then one can use the large storage and distribution systems for gas in Germany and the gas heating which is widely available. There is a move to get rid of oil heating and to provide incentives to install different heating from 2026 onwards...
>> Even if there was 100% renewable energy for electricity production in 2050, that wouldn't help with emissions that stem from heating unless you'd also make people heat with electricity. And to do that, you'd need to lower the prices (or raise the prices of alternatives).
>That's right. In a future with large electricity surplus it makes sense to switch to electricity for heating. To make that attractive new price models are needed.
Again, maybe read the article before commenting. Because the article explains how the pricing structure is incentivising people to continue using fossil fuels, even with a large electricity surplus.
Again, the article is misleading and fails to understand the German electricity markets (!), how the EEG works, how the electricity production/distribution/sales works in Germany, the pricing and how consumers buy electricity.
For example: the renewable produced electricity is delivered onto the grid and the distribution takes it. As much as is possible. This is mixed with non-renewable electricity. The consumer then gets delivered the mix. The normal consumer has no choice - he always gets the mix. He/she can't prefer fossil fuels or renewable. If there is more coal generated electricity, the renewable energy electricity has a preference. By law:
'Netzbetreiber sind vorbehaltlich des § 11 verpflichtet, den gesamten angebotenen Strom aus Erneuerbaren Energien und aus Grubengas unverzüglich vorrangig abzunehmen'
translates: 'Grid companies ... are required to take all provided electricity generated from renewable energies ... immediately and with preference.'
That's the German law, the EEG, the renewable energy law.
Thus there is simply no choice: ALL AVAILABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY IS PUSHED INTO THE GRID IMMEDIATELY WITH PREFERENCE.
The provider of renewable energy gets a guaranteed price, based on some calculations. The goal is that this price goes down over the years.
Additionally coal gets further price burdens, which last year had an effect that a lot of coal was driven out of the market, because coal generated electricity was suddenly much less competitive.
Currently there is no time in Germany when renewable energy electricity drives the country 100% or more. There are weekends with lots of wind where we reach 60%. These days are still relatively rare.
On these days the consumer can not choose to get more wind electricity, since he AUTOMATICALLY gets as much as possible via the mix provided by the grid.
The producer gets his price. Now there might be additional capacity available and there might not be a buyer for it. Thus the price on the spot market gets zero for some short period of time or even negative.
But for me as an end consumer I can't choose what kind of electricity I get delivered. What I can influence is where I buy the electricity from and where the profits from that are invested. For example I buy my electricity from a local provider, which invests in renewable energy. The company not only buys renewable energy on the market, but also has its own renewable energy production. The provider invests their profits into more renewable energy production.
For coal its currently tough to make any profits and they are slowly driven out of the market:
Last year in the first half brown coal power plants were 650 Million Euros in the red.
Thus the consumer doesn't give the coal power plants any advantage.
The added capacity of renewable produced electricity is each year planned (but not completely determined) and the government has instruments to influence that.
The article makes the point that for heating, consumers are choosing to stay with fossil fuel-driven heating rather than install electrical heating, because the tax-driven pricing for electricity makes electricity so expensive that where there is a choice to not use it, people do.
It doesn't address any of the non-heating areas that you're talking about, and doesn't make any claims around any of the electricity supply market that doesn't affect heating.
So it doesn't matter if the first 90% of the electricity people consume is green, because they're not choosing to use electricity for this. Thus the renewable power is not replacing the fossil fuel power in this market.
Because the article has no clue what the discussion is in Germany.
There is right now no cheap surplus clean electricity for heating. The so-called 'free electricity' simply does not exist.
What is free is SOMETIMES electricity traded on the spot market, which is not necessary available when the consumer needs it for heating and not necessarily in the amount that it would be useful.
That heating is not done via electricity is because it's simply not currently a part of the energy policy in Germany to promote electrical heating on a large scale. It's also not seen as a useful consumption of surplus energy in the next decade. The topics which are discussed are heat pumps, combined-cycle power plants, better insulation, zero-energy houses (which don't need much heating, but need electricity for air distribution), centralized district-level heating, electrical heating from local PV installations, adding gas generated from electricity to the gas distribution, pellet heating, solar, ...
The cost for a complete electrification of the heating market is estimated to be 2 trillion Euro. That's far away. There is a plan to disallow new oil heating from 2026 onwards, but there is no plan to support direct electrical heating with incentives. There will be incentives for heat pumps, but the achievable market share is not large in the next years.
> Thus the renewable power is not replacing the fossil fuel power in this market.
Because it was/is not wanted. This may change, but there are many experts saying that it is currently not useful to promote direct electrical heating and heat pumps are currently not a large scale solution. Also: Currently the price (different from what is claimed in the article) for electrical heating is too high in Germany.
The next main usage for electricity probably will be for electric vehicles and the infrastructure for that will be expensive to build. Thus investments will be needed for the electricity used to decarbonize energy in traffic.
The main reasons why Germany isn't currently using electrical heating (besides heat pumps, etc), is that on a large scale electricity usage in other areas has a preference, electricity for heating currently is expensive (the 'free electricity' is a myth) and building the infrastructure would be very expensive.
There are good energy efficient solutions to heating that use electricity. Here in Sweden the most common solution for new houses is the downhole heat exchanger [1]. If you want a cheaper initial investment an air heat pump can be used.
Sure, there are. But houses need to be insulated. Consumers need not waste energy by just using it -> for example don't open the window to cool down, instead of lowering the heating, etc. etc. Standards need to be defined for new houses. Also provide solutions for existing houses. Provide business models. To create that market and to make some impact means that we are talking about decades.
I keep forgetting how hopelessly after on the insulation central Europe is compared to us in the north. A friend of a friend built a house by Swedish standards in the UK a while ago and all her neighbors pitied her because the snow remained on her roof during winter.
We have that, too. But highly insulated houses have new problems: air quality can be bad and houses need an extensive fresh air supply system. Moisture needs to be removed from the air, too. But if coal&oil, now gas and future electricity would be cheap, there would be little incentive to develop working solutions. There are also concepts like 'virtual power plants': a virtual power plant consists of a bunch of renewable electricity producers (solar, wind, ...) and a gas power plant for back up. The gas power plant would then also provide the heat for homes in a centralized fashion. The efficiency of such a gas power plant could then very high. This would work for residential areas. The gas could also in the future be produced from local renewable energy sources.
UK is much much worse than Germany tho. And as an Austrian I have to say that most scandinavic houses I have been to (including iceland) were much worse insulated (both thermally and acoustically) than the houses in Austria.
Electrical heating is seen as an emergency solution in Germany. There are nearly no homes with electrical heating systems in place, and if people heat electrical it is when their central heating system is broken.
I think most Germans wouldn't even get the idea to heat electrically.
It's not happening because it is no goal in the energy policy to promote large scale electrical heating and there is no cheap surplus energy (different from what the article claims). There will be some expansion in the area of heat pumps, but it will be slow.
The renewable energy expansion is used to replace current non-renewable electricity usage. Then we will see more renewable energy electricity used to decarbonize traffic (trains, cars, trucks, busses, ...).
I'm more familiar with the solar aspect of Energiewende, but a goal was to kick-start an industry to make renewable energy viable in the first place. This couldn't happen without significant amounts of installation caused by political commitment.
Yeah, I'd love for them to fix the bad power-vs-gas incentives. But I would not expect this to happen any time soon in the current political climate were no one will be willing to take the hit for something consumer will feel that directly.
But most subsidies are towards coal and gas. They even stopped wind subsidies, because windenergy was too flexible and pushed coal out of the market, since coal is not flexible enough. So now we have to wait until more power plants get shut down before they pick up on building more wind energy again. Until then, they are powering the existing wind energy platforms up.
The "stated end-goal" and what is actually done is very divergent in modern day Germany.
Just saying that right now you pay on average 0,25€/kWh here. Although the market price is almost naught.
Germany has/had extensive coal production (complete exit by 2038 IIRC) with lots of employment tied to it; of course that has subsidies.
> They even stopped wind subsidies, because windenergy was too flexible and pushed coal out of the market, since coal is not flexible enough
That sounds more like a conspiracy theory. You don't stop stuff for being "too flexible" but because of other problem, e.g. offshore vs. onshore, transmission to the south, environmental concerns, wanting a different mix of renewables etc. .
> The "stated end-goal" and what is actually done is very divergent in modern day Germany.
>Germany has/had extensive coal production (complete exit by 2038 IIRC) with lots of employment tied to it; of course that has subsidies.
I get that and I am glad it happened, it's just way too late for my liking. At least it's done, I can agree on that.
>That sounds more like a conspiracy theory. You don't stop stuff for being "too flexible" but because of other problem, e.g. offshore vs. onshore, transmission to the south, environmental concerns, wanting a different mix of renewables etc. .
You can't have energy produced disappear. So if you overproduce, it has to go somewhere and you need to stop production to not fry your energy grid. If you overproduce, and your coal energy can't shut down, so your network becomes more green/clean, the obvious choice is to shut down the flexible generator, i.e. wind energy.
>Yeah, so? Consumer electricity prices were never even mentioned in the "end-goal"?
That is true, but the EEG is making renewable energies more expensive for end-consumers. And I think that is the main point of this article.
It also doesn’t state what is obvious to those of us who build infrastructure: Germany and Denmark have no way to store wind power so it has no choice but to pay others to take it. Norway is home to one of the worlds largest batteries.. its hydro power. Already cheap, but has the added benefit of being storable for sufficient duration to take german and danish wind power when it suits them (ie when they get paid). It baffles the mind why the danish and Germans don’t use some of their subsidy to invest in storage — but therein lies another catch 22. The lithium needed for that isn’t being mined in sufficient quantities in Europe and 100% of the supply from China is earmarked to autos. There are some jr mining countries spinning up in Europe but it will be awhile before any meaningful impact will be felt. One wonders if by then other storage techniques will be viable. In the meantime, they will be forced to pay the Nordics to take their green energy while supplementing with coal from Poland or succumbing to the siren call of another controversial Russian pipeline.
I recently listened to a long podcast with a German that is working on hydro-gravitational storage with water lifting a huge (multiple hundred meters in diameter) rock cylinder to store energy. He recently finished a smaller scale prototype (if I recall right 20m diameter) that tests all the insulation, the cutting techniques and power generation
> The subsidies are (overly) high so that lots of renewable energy production/infrastructure is built
In the first half of last year a total of 35 new wind turbines were added across Germany[0], the lowest rate for 19 years.
If German government policies are supposed to encourage the creation of new renewable energy production then they don't appear to be working particularly well.
> policies are supposed to encourage the creation of new renewable energy production
The government is slowing down adding wind turbines for basically two reasons:
* market price
* infrastructure catching up. We need more power lines to the south to distribute the electricity and building them takes a few years. It makes not too much sense to build wind electricity capacity in the North and not being able to transport it.
As the article stresses since 2017 and for two reasons (different from what is discussed in this thread):
- Switching to an auction model in 2017 to drive prices down, which was implemented very poorly.
- Strongly incentivizing small "citizen" project to increase acceptance in the population. Which messed up larger scale deployments and lead to awful bureaucracy.
Due to distance regulations between residential areas, existing turbines etc etc (and basically each viable spot already taken / in use, besides offshore) the numbers built are shrinking - unless some kind of change regarding the laws are done...
Keep in mind there is a difference between subsidies we have to pay now for existing installations but were promised years or decades ago when those were built (this seems to be what the article is mostly about) and those guaranteed payments to turbine owners and rules around adding capacity now (and consumers will have to pay for in the decades to come). Yes, the political "enthusiasm" for renewable energy has faded quite a bit...
I've not sure if has changed in the last few years, but one issue Denmark has run into is that our tariffs on CO2 actually harms the use of surplus green energy.
Most of Denmark (at least in the cities) are heats using hot water from remote heating plants, either surplus heat from power generation or garbage incineration, with auxiliary gas and coal plants. 15 years ago many of the smaller gas powered heating plants offered to install the equipment needed to convert excess electrical power to heat. The idea being that they would save money, compared to buying gas, the only caveat: They didn't want to pay the CO2 tariffs, which made sense, given that the power would mostly be from wind anyway. Paying the tariff would completely negate any cost savings, compared to buying the gas.
This solution was refused by politicians for years, so instead the heating plants would burn gas, generation CO2, and the excess wind power would be sold to Germany for almost nothing, and in many cases for free. That this point Germany wasn't closing down its nuclear power plants, so the electricity the Danish windfarms replaced was also CO2 free.
Because the regulation, at the time, mandated CO2 tariff on ALL electricity, regardless of origin. That was the broken part of the regulation.
The tariff was/is calculated per kW and not actually based on CO2 emissions. It's basically just an extra tax placed on the consumers to help subsidize green energy. It just kinda backfired the cases of the heating plants, because they weren't never thought of a consumer of electricity.
Interestingly, most of Finland heats with electricity. I used to live there before I moved to Germany. Unlike Germany, Finland does not use a lot of natural gas.
So, Germans subsidizing Finnish heating with clean energy is not necessarily a bad deal for Finland. I'd say it's a better deal for the planet than Russia subsidizing gas usage in e.g. Belarus, which is currently negotiating a new deal for this with Russia (in exchange for becoming part of Russia). Finland is in any case not great for wind power.
The article is correct that bureaucratic inertia and taxing practices in Germany don't make much sense and are very counter productive (and not just for the energy market). I live there. German ineptness and inefficiency is cringe-worthy. It's a political problem; the current government seems paralyzed waiting for their term to run out and not getting much done at all.
That does not mean clean energy is a no go but it does mean that pressure on politicians to fix things will increase over time. Also, the rest of Europe gets a sweet deal on energy. E.g. the Netherlands where I'm from is far ahead in EV deployments and despite being a gas producer is already implementing a policy of decommissioning gas usage by households over the next decades (this is a big deal in NL). Germany has no such plans in place. Heating oil disappeared a long time ago from my country as well and apparently is still a thing in Germany. Even coal heating was still a thing when I moved to Berlin 11 years ago (you could smell it in the winter). That's a lot more rare now.
Fundamentally, selling excess clean energy at negative rates is a sign of desperation. It should be a very valuable commodity. The problem is that we subsidize production but tax/penalize consumption. It should be the other way around. That would drive demand up and the cheapest way to meet that demand would be clean energy. With plenty of EVs hitting the market at tens of thousands per month across the EU, there should be no shortage of new demand.
That's why Texas pumps and refines oil using lots of solar and wind power. It's an economic no-brainer for them. Most of the clean energy capacity in that state (and it is world leading on that front) is actually consumed by their industry.
Phasing out gas heating is going to be a very, very big job in the Netherlands. Replacing an energy source is easy, just place a nuclear power plant / solar field down and phase out the coal power station. Done.
However, almost all homes in the Netherlands are heated by gas directly from the source. The gas is used to heat up water in the home and pump it through radiators on the wall or in the floor. A highly efficient system. But we can't import the gas from other countries because of the calorific properties so we need to pump our own gas. Switching to electric systems in the home will double the cost for most home owners because it's not very efficient and electricity is expensive (though the government can lower taxes on it). It also means that home owners will have to convert their current system in the home and pay the price for this. But it should be a plug and play option.
An ever bigger project is switching to government provided hot water heating. That means that you have to dig up every single street in the country, get rid of all existing infrastructure (fiber, coax, power, gas, water, sewer), lay down a big water pipe in the middle, put the existing infrastructure back and repave the street. Have the hot water enter every home, redo the plumbing of the home and change the water systems. The downside to this is that instead of heating the home with 70 degrees water like we do now, it will only be around 50 degrees. You can't heat a home in the winter like that so you also need to isolate every home. And you are tied to a single provider for your heating, unlike the current system where you can occasionally switch energy provider to get a better price. People I know with this system pay more than I do with gas.
The second system is a gigantic job but somewhat cheaper overall and highly efficient. The only problem is heating the water in a central location. Near an industrial zone you can use waste water from cooling systems but if nothing is around you need a lot of electricity. Or geothermal. They are still trying to find a good way to do this.
> However, almost all homes in the Netherlands are heated by gas directly from the source.
Given the climate of NL is relatively mild, averaging between 0 to 25C,[1] would something like a heat pump be ideal for the area? There are units that can operating down to -20C.
That is correct, but a heat pump requires a big unit placed outside the home that makes noise. Given our lack of space, closely grouped homes and apartment buildings, that is a challenge. Also a heat pump is not able to heat the water to 70 degrees, which is why you need to isolate your home even more for it to work.
Electric resistance heat is inefficient but it's a plug-and-play replacement solution for gas heaters. You can directly replace it without any changes to the home other than needing an extra circuit breaker and wire pulled.
"but a heat pump requires a big unit placed outside the home that makes noise."
Old ones maybe. We've installed a Mitsubishi mini-split that can heat a 1900 sq ft. mediocrely insulated home in Appalachia (this morning was -6C). Never mind, the indoor spits (<30dB?), the compressor outside is so quiet you can't hear it if you're next to it. My, brand new, radon pump is far noisier.
As to footprint, the compressor is tall and wide (about 1m). But it's only 25 cm thick, so it doesn't take much room at all along the wall.
Really, Europe has no reason at all not to go all in with splits.
Even the "quiet" new ones cause a problem when placed in the confined area between buildings[1]. It projects low frequency noise into the neighboring structure. Very hard to deal with. You still need to be careful with placement[2].
A heat pump at -6C? Are you sure it was operating as a heat pump or did it fall back on resistance heating?
Also split units are rather ugly and with older homes you ruin the look. Government hot water heating with city water is much better as it doesn't affect how the street or homes look like.
>The downside to this is that instead of heating the home with 70 degrees water like we do now, it will only be around 50 degrees. You can't heat a home in the winter like that
Well you can, you just need bigger radiator surface area. Modern gas heating also runs no hotter than ~50°C because condensing boilers are more efficient.
> You can't heat a home in the winter like that so you also need to isolate every home.
Yes you do or just pay for inefficiency.
I've spent 2 years in Netherlands moving from Ukraine. I was shocked how (some) Dutch people ignorant to save warmth of their houses and schools in winter. Only way to change that make it expensive. As it should be.
It's apparent to me as Ukraine has turned away from Russia subsidised (cheap) gas at 2014. So most of Ukrainians now know that there are no such thing as free energy. Someone has to pay in one way or another.
In my case my total electric + gas bill is around €60. Around €30 of that is fixed cost, €30 is variable cost.
I could improve by having better insulation in the walls or better windows. But with our high labour cost that would be thousands of euro's() to bring the bill down to at most €45, if I could cut my energy bill in half, which is unlikely. It's not worth the investment.
() I had to replace drywall due to water damage, it was around €2000 for a section of five square meter. This was replacing the insulation, wall, redoing the stucco, repainting and reapplying the fixtures and wall trim. Luckily this was covered by insurance. I don't want to know what replacing the 180 square meters of drywall would cost.
here in the UK there was the whisper of using the gas system to deliver hydrogen (or a variation). I heard last year that one of the big gas mains in Yorkshire was being converted to supply hydrogen.
I guess if you replace the boiler on the other end with a fuel cell based system that was still 'wet' so the radiators and water heating in the house stayed the same the there may be less change needed?
If the goal is heating, hydrogen combustion would be much cheaper and just as clean. It might not be as efficient as a fuel cell + heat pump combination, but I think the production of fuel cells and heat pumps would have a worse environmental impact than generating the difference in hydrogen.
The best way to heat homes IMHO is geothermal energy. It is clean and renewable. There is an element of electricity consumption, but far less than with direct electric heating.
There is a shift in Finland to geothermal, chosen for most new builds now, and district heating systems are exploring deep geothermal for heating whole towns and cities.
It's clean but renewable not so much in two ways: they are planning one here at a depth of 2.5 to 3km. They expect it to last 30 years before the underground has cooled to much to be of use. Regenerating that heat (i.e. spreading the other heat to this area) will take a few hundred years they expect. And secondly: there is a limited amount of heat available in the earth. It's a lot of heat, but there is no meaningful amount of new heat coming in so it's just as renewable as our current oil supply.
Makes sense though, and I think it depends on how much heat you extract - you could locally deplete the heat faster than it "regenerates" back to that area through natural radioactive decay and primordial heat loss
By geothermal, do you mean digging 30 meters into the ground for heat/cold? I've read that it doesn't work in densily populated areas where every system is very close to each other. Unless you have one installation per street.
We also have heat exchangers for warming your home but then you have a noisy box outside your house or on your balcony.
There's a peculiarity in Texas's electricity market, for what it's worth. Their grid does not export any power to other states, so the spot price of electricity often falls very low. If they exported northward, or into the Rocky Mountain states, they would have larger demand.
Here in a central european country, end-user price for Russian natural gas is about 4 eurocents/kWh. Electricity is 12 cents/kWh, in Germany even more iirc.
I have no idea about wholesale spot prices, but I don't see any incentive to switch to electricity as the price isn't going below 4 cents so often.
“ An Air Source Heat Pump (ASHP) will typically produce around 3kW thermal energy for every 1kW of electrical energy consumed” i.e. modern electric heating might cost you 4¢ per kWh of heating.
Comparing kWh for natural gas (some loss up flue) with a heat pump in your case it seems they cost roughly the same marginally (although you might have grossly different installation costs, risks of outages, and CO2 impact depending on your individual circumstances).
Aren't air pumps less power efficient then ground ones?
Also, is it possible for air pump to heat a liquid in pipes?
I mean can I have air pump that provides heating to the floor?
If the floor is warm then body thinks it is warm.
I know air pumps only as air conditioners and they just blew warm air around, which is not that comfortable if you are just where the warm wind blows :)
Aren't air pumps less power efficient then ground ones?
Only when the air temperature is less than the ground temperature. On average, yes, air source is slightly less efficient than ground source, but the initial cost of ground source is so much higher that you will not make up the difference in the lifetime of the pump. Air source is fine.
Also, is it possible for air pump to heat a liquid in pipes?
Yes.
I mean can I have air pump that provides heating to the floor?
Yes. This is generally considered the best way to do it as the water does not need to be as hot as with conventional radiators, so it is somewhat more efficient. However, conventional low temperature radiators work fine, too.
I know air pumps only as air conditioners and they just blew warm air around, which is not that comfortable if you are just where the warm wind blows :)
To each their own. I grew up with forced air heating and prefer it to radiated heat.
Yes, and that was Canadian houses, I assume, with dozens of vents in the floor on every level of the house.
In Europe we mostly see air-to-air heat pumps in cottages, and there is then only one vent for the entire house. Which if fine and efficient for a small cottage in the fall and spring and maybe a few weekends in the winter.
>I know air pumps only as air conditioners and they just blew warm air around, which is not that comfortable if you are just where the warm wind blows :)
The pump linked above connect to the water based heating system in my house. Works like a charm and I heat ~260 m2 (badly isolated) with 1500 kWh per month (wintertime)
The efficiency depends on the pump, the house and the weather. At +10 (Celsius) ambient temperature, the air source pumps will generally come out ahead, at -20 the ground-source pump is going to win.
There are many companies that deliver air to water heat pumps, e.g. Daikin, Mitsubishi etc.
Most of these — these days – seem to be for both cooling and heating, but I know Mitsubishi Ecodan have models for just heating. If you live in a building with pipes installed, the pipes need to be specially insulated to carry cold water, if not the moisture in the air will seek the cold pipes and form condensation thus causing humidity problems.
If you are looking into installing an air to water heat pump for heating your home, you can either use it for floor heating and/or different types of radiators (many solutions also offer sanitary water heating as well, for showers etc.) Sometimes you can use the radiators that are already installed in your home and just install the water pump system, but that requires that the water warmed up by the heat pumps is sufficiently warm (and that depends on the company/model chosen). If the water is not sufficiently warm, you either need to install a bigger radiator or newer types of radiators that are called low temperature radiators. The latter radiators are "smarter" and gives more heat at a lower temperature, but typically are also more expensive.
Here are a couple of links for more info. The video is more for illustration purposes, as models changes all the time. It is also important to point out that – in general – there are lots of different solutions on how these machines are assembled. Sometimes the outdoor unit contains technology that in other models are stored in the indoor unit. Sometimes the water container is stored together with the indoor unit itself, sometimes these are separate. It all depends on available space, or if you like things compact or not.
I have nothing to do with Daikin or Mitsubishi, I have just been looking into installing this in our own home. I am looking into an air to water air pump, and only for heat as our pipes are not properly insulated.
Except some places in Russia it's still common to go below -20, and in a post-global warming world, these areas will likely experience a new ice-age. Electricity is the best bet, as gas can freeze too, while copper just becomes able to carry higher loads.
Actually most of the warming is due to milder winters and at more extreme latitudes. So even if variation increased, it could still result in fewer very cold days.
Air sources Heat Pump in Germany are extremely inefficient because, guess what? Germany air is very cold in Winter, as most of it has continental climate.
What you can do is make a hole in the ground, put pipes on it and recirculate fluids. But this is way more expensive.
So it's a pointless and artificial comparison? Because as far as I know, heat pumps are paid by the end consumer and not by "market price participants". Who are they anyway?
It seems you can make a nice deal when you are an electricity intermediary in Germany?
You're talking electricity cost? $0.02c/kWh doesn't really cover the cost (not to mention the environmental cost if it's made from coal). So yes, that's crazy.
"$0.02c" - does this notation mean 2 cents? Honest question, not American and never seen this format before. Is it considered more clear than just "$0.02"?
Your point (1) is the point of the article. If the market price of electricity is 0€/MWh, the retail price is still bloody expensive because there's a ton of taxes, most of which do not relate to source of the energy nor its cost.
You claim (2) is a misunderstanding of the title. The title is intended to be interpreted as "Why Germans won't heat their homes with electricity, even if it's free". That is how I immediately interpreted it so I don't think the claim that the title is inaccurate can be maintained on this basis.
The intersection of the two claims is a further point of the article. Since free electricity in Germany is too expensive to heat houses with, and since Germans are going to heat their houses (unlike, say, Australians—where a normal winter is comparable to this year's winter in Berlin—who will merely become uncomfortable and/or stay in bed when the cost of heating gets too high), we therefore have the unfortunate situation that Germans are not selecting the most abundant nor the most socially responsible forms of heating. The taxes do not act like a carbon tax when a person is encouraged to use natural gas to heat their house instead of superabundant wind power.
The general market price is not 0€/MWh. That's nonsense. The price is on the short-term spot-market, which is only a small part of the larger electricity market.
Consumers who need to heat homes / buildings / etc. are not buying on the spot market, but have long term contracts.
We're seeing prices for electricity as low as 0€ or less because people aren't using it efficiently. Part of that is because there is insufficient storage capacity, preventing it from being used when there's more demand and less wind.
But another part of that is that retail prices don't correspond close enough to market prices, so people aren't incentivised to use the best source of energy available at a time. An electric heater isn't that expensive. An app that broadcasts the current energy price is probably a little more expensive, especially since the company that produces it will want to add as many expensive lock in features as they can.
The German marketplace is remarkably inefficient. It's extremely difficult to cancel contracts here for instance — you most commonly have to do it several months in advance, or else they will automatically extend themself without the actual, legitimate consent of the client.
There's many problems but most of them are caused by bugs in the German marketplace which could be fixed by regulation intended to improve efficiency. For some reason, all the regulation here is intended to reduce efficiency.
> extremely difficult to cancel contracts here for instance
No, it's not difficult. Changing your energy provider is usually quite easy and there are a lot to choose from. I did it a few years ago and the new provider did all the paper work for me.
It's just that many end consumers are not prepared to do it. And no one does it on a daily base on the spot market.
I can see part of your point. The title is slightly awkwardly worded - maybe because the author of the article isn't a native English speaker?
Instead, perhaps:
'Why won't Germans heat their homes with free electricity?'
...or maybe all of it be rephrased a little:
'Why won't Germans heat their homes with electricity, even when it is free?'
(I think the second version best captures the two questions dealt with within the article - the German propensity to heat their homes with natural gas, and the odd taxation system meaning that 'free' electricity isn't really free.)
Well, it is (wholesale) and it isn't (to the end user) - that's part of the point of the article, and the title is being dramatic to get the reader interested.
Here in UK on certain tariffs (Octopus Agile) price of electricity regularly falls below zero at night. If you have an electric car set to only charge when price of electricity is below zero, you're getting paid to charge your car.
The useful part is that, if a user of the tariff is sufficiently engaged, not only do they save money, but by shifting their demand to follow supply it helps with the increasing adoption of renewable sources.
I feel like the issue is that a lot of consumers get stuck paying a fixed per kWh delivery/transmission fee.
IMO: this doesn’t make sense. Transmission and distribution costs are largely the amortization of the cost of building the system peak carrying capacity.
There’s no shame in charging higher D&T rates during peak times and near-zero rates at 3AM.
Could also make electricity taxes a percentage instead of a fixed $ per kWh.
Germany could encourage domestic consumption of its overproduction, which would further encourage demand smoothing, but instead exports it.
About encourage domestic consumption: the local power infrastructure does not have enough capacity to distribute all the energy produced by wind turbines (in the north) across the country.
FWIW, there are systems/installations in Germany for having different electricity prices at day and at night (source: my home). There used to be a large difference (like 10 vs 20 cent/kWh according to landlords), but now it's pretty insignificant with 23 vs 25 cent/kWh.
I'm somewhat shocked that they do they not load those subsidies onto the electricity charge on consumers as a tax and mean those that use more, pay more. That's what they do in the UK, though alas they loaded it onto the standing charge that is a flat rate per day for having a supply.
Idealy it should be like personal TAX, you have a certain amount you get without being taxed, then after that you pay X amount until you use another threshold and then the tax upon the unit rate of energy is taxed more. That would be the ideal fair way of doing energy. Certainly would be a socially more acceptable way. Of course you can allocate people a higher initial rate they can use without paying tax upon the charge for things like disabilities, health needs etc. Again, be no simple solution, but working on something that sees it paid for fairly always works out best for all as above all, people love fairness. At least, that is how I'd like things done.
But do remember, Germany recently went thru an anti nuclear phase and that forced many coal reactors to carry on longer, so they did need to compensate and a push on solar and wind power was a logical move. How that was subsidies and paid for was and is perhaps an avenue they need to address.
All that said, much respect to the people of Germany for responsibly using energy. That has probably done way more than anything to help.
> alas they loaded it onto the standing charge that is a flat rate per day for having a supply.
Not true, source: my electricity bill. A standing charge exists, but the vast majority of what we pay is per kWh.
The part that you misunderstood, I think, is that the EEG is fixed per kWh and not per euro paid (just like most of our fuel taxes, even if crude doubles or halves in price our price at the pump only shifts a little). The article was quite misunderstable, bordering on wrong even, in that part because it reads as if market rate had any influence on German electricity bills and only the EEG charge was fixed. In reality, it's impossible for a households to get a contract that follows market rate, you always pay the same per kWh no matter if it's Sunday or Monday, windy or calm. The electricity spot market price is only relevant for utilities and for a few heavy industrial users with special contracts (the kind of heavy use where you'd be mandated to give the utility a heads up before increasing or dropping the load).
This will have to change eventually, because load shift is so much mow efficient than storage, but it's difficult to implement because you can't really have both constant rate and variable rate in parallel due to an abundance of bad actors who would have both and ruin the pricing models by opportunistically switching between them.
> In reality, it's impossible for a households to get a contract that follows market rate, you always pay the same per kWh no matter if it's Sunday or Monday, windy or calm.
In the UK you can use the Agile tariff from Octopus Energy (https://octopus.energy/agile/) which has half hourly dynamic pricing per electricity kWh. The next 24hrs worth of prices are released each day around 4pm and follow market cost. There’s a 12p/kWh surcharge between 4pm and 7pm during peak demand. Used in conjunction with a smart meter it bills per half hour usage and can go negative.
Twice in the last two week’s it has gone below zero due to recent storms. It’s a great tariff if you have an electric car to charge in the early hours when prices are cheapest and can reduce usage during the peak three hours. A home battery would also help out as it could be charged during cheap periods and discharged when prices are too high.
I will say, the shift in electric cars and more so the iminante arrival of solid state lithium batteries, distributed and more so, local home storage will start to become and more open avenue. This would be great for flats that can not avail the installation of solar panels and also those that rent (more an aspect in Germany) which are limited. A battery tech that you don't have to worry about exploding and you can literally drive nails into and be safe, will be game changing (not advocating that people drive nails into batteries, more a way to explain how much safer they are). That level of safety will open up the home storage market more as well.
> I'm somewhat shocked that they do they not load those subsidies onto the electricity charge on consumers as a tax
They do both. The fixed amount is (officially) for infrastructure improvements, but there is an additional tax for consumption per kWh.
> Of course you can allocate people a higher initial rate they can use without paying tax upon the charge for things like disabilities, health needs etc
Probably too burocratic and inefficient in practice. Energy just has to be affordable for any household.
I worked in the Utility Software area for a while. Everything related to energy in Germany looks like corruption if you look to closely.
Everyone is buddies with someone in politics, otherwise screw your career.
Laws are mainly pre written by the industry which is afraid of the risks associated with tackling the challenges involved in climate change. But also afraid of doing nothing, since this would make them clear targets for disruption through voters. So when they do change something it is always in extremely small steps, limited in scope, without changes to the wider system.
While politics give a clear sense of direction regarding renewable energy, the whole thing seems to be to complex for politicians to fully grasp.
"Laws are mainly pre written by the industry which is afraid..."
That's actually how lots of laws are written. Because when politicians write new laws, they listen to expert opinion. And the best experts come - of course - from the relative industry.
Sometimes this makes sense, and sometimes to inane protection of incumbent interests like happened with digital content (it's illegal to copy the DVD you've purchased etc).
I recall talking to some europeans and they said they like their driers, which only half dry clothes (they put them up on a line to finish) but use less energy. It's some sort of virtue thing, I guess.
My collection of 20+ year old T-shirts does not support this hypothesis. my experience has been the agitator in the washer is what causes the most damage.
Lower quality towels have a very loose weave that easily comes apart both in the washing and in the drying. Some of the very worst, in my case Eastern European, towels are so bad that they show near bald spots after just 3 washing cycles.
I can't see any problems with this; those are tiny fibers and they don't make a big difference except over years. It doesn't affect the weave that much.
What causes the most damage to my old T-shirts is deodorant stains. :(
For shirts I run through the dryer, they don't seem to have suffered much by it. But I don't run printed designs through the dryer, because they take serious damage that way.
Most of my T-shirts survive this (and I love having things come right out nice and dry) but there are 100% cotton and 100% wool clothes that shrink. I try the lower temperatures but the only real sustainable way I found was to lose weight continuously so I can fit in them. The others I just send to the laundry guys. Don't know what they do but it usually comes back nice.
Considering how popular synthetics are these days, I suspect it's because they use small combo washer/dryers in Europe. Certainly my British washer/dryer combo did a good job.
Damage of clothes through the washing/drying cycle is mostly the result of the kinetic energy they are exposed to in the process. Keeping a lower net weight load, and reducing the rpms in the spin cycle can have a large impact on longevity.
This makes zero sense. I hang dry most of my laundry because, why not? But the few things that go into my tumble dryer had better get out completely dry, what would be the point otherwise? Recent dryers with heat-pumps take longer but consume less energy.
Nature provides both the ideal outcome (great weather and lovely-smelling laundry on the clothesline) but also a lot of much-worse scenarios that drive the use of technological solutions. Like a long humid rainy season where hang-dried clothes does not come out smelling nice at all.
Not virtue, but space probably. A small apartment doesn't dedicate space to a dryer, and the washer typically spins at 1400 rpm, at which point clothes are half dry (like 15 minutes in the dryer).
One of the things I missed the most living in Europe without a dryer (this was the norm in my experience, at least when/where I lived) was a warm fluffy cotton towel fresh from the dryer. I pay 8-9 US cents per kW/h which with a 240V 20A dryer (little known fact even to people who live here, almost every house in the US has both ~240V and ~120V service) pulling 3000W in service runs me about 25-35 cents a load or closer to $1 in Germany. Worth it.
If you are "synchronously" doing laundry, ie. waiting for the load to dry, then we must admit it's slower, though this may vary with the seasons and climate of your location. But if you set it aside in the morning or evening, then go out and start your day as you normally would, you're OK.
In some cases this might mean you plan your laundry better. Eg. you start laundry when you have at least 1 set of clothes to wear for the next day, instead of when you have 0 clean clothes to wear.
I do the laundry for the house; it's about 4 loads a week for 4 people, which I mainly batch up because if I'm not paying attention to the wet laundry, it can sit in the washer and get stale. It would take more like 5 minutes to hang a load- do I hang it inside, or out of my crowded home (it's in the 4-10C range outside now), so you're talking about 20 minutes, spread throughout a day. Alternatively, I can just dump the washer load into the dryer, and come back when the dryer finishes. For a busy professional, this is huge.
I wash my clothes in the washing machine, then hang them to dry, that's all there is to it. It takes time (about a day) and some space for the clothes hanger in a rather small apartment, but that doesn't bother me.
Most washing machines have the spin cycle which removes almost all water that could drip out. So I haven't noticed any water that drips out as such. Also, you have a specific place in some apartments for this with different type of floor.
Yeah, okay, to be fair, I was hand washing clothes, not machine washing. And I do recall living in Germany and there were places to hang wet things that we don't have in American apartments.
But I've seen some hang-to-dry things that could be used over a bathtub.
>But I've seen some hang-to-dry things that could be used over a bathtub.
I have this in my apartment (Sweden). After I've done laundry I hang my clothes to dry over the bathtub, then move them onto a separate drying rack in the morning (so I have space to shower), and by that time the clothes have dried enough so there's no risk of dripping on the floor.
If there’s a specific place with a different floor (and maybe dedicated ventilation), I find a little odd the argument that a dryer (which sometimes even stacks on top of the washer) is a waste of space.
Washing machines spin the clothes, so most of the water is already gone.
But it is true that you need space and a fitting room as the drying can create damp rooms that need a good ventilation.
I think many people actually have driers but don't use them if they can dry them otherwise. A disadvantage of drying by air is that the clothes can get pretty hard. Some use fabric softener for that.
Unless I put too much in the washing machine that it can't spin properly, most things don't drip when they are hung up. And for thick wool jumpers that do drip we have a mesh thing to lay them on over the bathtub, and anyway the floor is tiled.
Advertising is far ahead of you: the driers have a feature to keep the clothes just damp enough for perfect ironing. The same driers have A+++ energy ratings, because progress. They carefully avoid hinting at a connection between these two because the virtuous ones are not in the market for a drier.
And most appliances reach their A+++ rating by including a special "Eco" setting(s) that in practice many users opt not to use in their daily routines.
Also, most (all?) dryers over here will have multiple settings to select ending the drying cycle at different sensed humidity points, from 'maximum' dry to 'cupboard' dry to 'ready for ironing' dry etc. These programs are more convenient and used much more commonly than setting a timer for the cycle.
Why not capture carbon from air with surplus energy? Build few capture plants and buy energy to keep price positive, then sell carbon cerificates on european market.
It would be more efficient for Germans to pay for new energy production in their neighbors. Poland for example has lots of coal that makes it untenable to do green energy.
[edit] though frankly it’s probably even easier for Germans to just pay their domestic coal producers not to produce.
You'd have to do the math, but it might be because the surplus doesn't last long enough to pay for the equipment. Even if the prices were low enough for half the year, this means the equipment sits idle half the time. Most energy surpluses are shorter than that.
Yes, probably it would not be making enough money to sustain operation.
But I still think that we (as a world) should start capture carbon actively during this decade. Last summer in Europe was hottest yet and with such hot winter we are for even hotter summer this year. Keeping energy prices up would be just added benefit.
Using electricity to heat buildings should be one of the last steps to take, after almost everything else using energy is renewable. Electricity is a precious form of energy, while heat is primitive. Converting in both directions is not lossless, so you want to keep the precious form.
The author makes it seem like that the negative prices are constant, which is not the case. Germany also does not have 100% renewable energy. Once you have an electric heater at your home, you will be using electric energy generated by burning coal to heat your home.
It also does not solve the problem of the German electricity market, which is mostly that renewable energy is not steady. Power is not distributed evenly across space and time. So you need to store the energy and move it from North to South. But storage and transmission lines are lacking to say the least.
One intermediate strategy you could take, would be to convert abundant electric energy to hydrogen, which you can feed into the already existing natural gas pipes and burn inside the already existing gas heaters, the author is criticizing. This way you would solve both problems (missing network and missing storage) at the same time.
Electric heating via heat pump is ridiculously efficient and has a much bigger bang for your carbon-reducing buck than anything else a homeowner can do.
The issue with heat pumps is you may need far less heat at 15c when their very efficient than at -15c when their not. Couple that with the losses from heat to electricity at power plants and burning natural gas at home is about as efficient on average depending on your area.
So, it really does depend on how cold it gets where you are if it’s better to burn fuel at home or at a powerplant.
PS: Solar hot water heaters are generally the best overall option any place heat pumps are actually efficient.
"The issue with heat pumps is you may need far less heat at 15c when their very efficient than at -15c when their not."
My home is heated with a heat pump. I live in Canada, and just went through a period of -20C. It works great and is a fraction of the cost of heating with natural gas. It also operates as a fantastic AC in the summer.
It uses a closed loop of water to pipes in the ground, with the ground as the "sink". It is very efficient, and the ground is always 8-10C.
This conversation seems to be dominated, and moderated, by a lot of people who are in the dark, or misunderstand the fundamental physics behind how a heat pump works, or who gatekeep what "electric" means with heating (which is particularly bizarre).
The ground ends up close to the average temperature of the local environment which in your case is a long way from -15c. Excluding of course hot springs etc, but that’s a separate and very localized solution. Further, if you’re that far south a solar hot water heater system is still cheaper to build + operate and in terms of energy costs.
People dealing with permafrost both directly are stuck with lower temperatures and would need to dig much further as your dependent on water exchanging heat with a large thermal mass. That’s the tipping point I am talking about, not your balmy 8-10c average temperatures.
And people in the tropics have little need for heating.
My point is solar hot water heaters are generally the better solution, even if they don’t work in the very far north. But, if you’re that far north heat pumps also fail.
I'm not quite getting your point, and honestly it seems like you're digging deep to stick with what you originally stated.
The climate I live in is colder than the majority of humans. Maybe the vast majority. I have a very efficient heat pump (I've been using it for 8 years now -- it's well proven to me by now). Ergo, any notion that heat pumps only work in balmy conditions has no bearing on reality -- yes, those super cheap air exchange units you grab from Home Depot to take the chill off in Atlanta during January might have such limits, but that has no bearing on the market as a whole.
The article linked talks about how Germans don't heat with electricity -- even with very efficient heat pumps -- because a regressive tax on such use makes it uneconomical. I don't see what solar heaters (which seldom even pay for themselves in great conditions -- e.g. California -- as an aside) have to do with this conversation.
My point is solar hot water heaters are generally the better option for home heating as I have been saying. You may assume I am referring to a specific case but this is very general advice. Including arctic through tropical climate, sea level or extreme altitude, detached single family homes through skyscrapers, building on bead rock vs oceanfront silt.
In the tropics at high altitude you can use cheap systems for domestic hot water and minimal heating needs. Colder local temperatures require larger and more complex systems but also increase demand for heat. Meanwhile, heat pumps get steadily worse until ground source heating becomes viable though at significantly higher upfront costs and more limited locations. Salt water for example dramatically increases heat pump costs costs vs fresh water.
Large cities often shift things to heat pumps. Though neither system is that great for dense NYC skyscrapers or other large northern cities. And most cites skyscrapers have significant unused exposures where solar collectors are at least somewhat viable. Many short apartment buildings in China for example have solar collectors for the top few floors.
PS: That said, it’s generally not exactly a dramatic difference. However, unlike many things it’s both generally if not always cheaper and more environmentally friendly.
I assume there is zero chance of you reading this, but just felt the need to clarify something.
When the efficiency of a heat pump decreases it’s producing less heat for the same energy (when running) rather than the same heat using more energy. As you need more meat output as the temperature drops that quickly becomes a problem. This means you quickly need either a larger heat pump or a backup resistive heating element in the worst conditions. That’s rarely an issue for ground source heating, but is a huge issue than means a heat pump may theoretically be much more effect looking at a chart than what actually happens in practice.
When I run the numbers, a solar water heater does not work out for me. In order for me to eliminate my electric heater I would need an active (somewhat more costly) solar heating system which run ~$4k the lower end if you include the cost of installation. At a rate of about $500 a year in water heating costs that's a 8 year payback timeframe for a device that has a 5 year warranty (more expensive models have longer warranties).
Can you do solar preheat as a retrofit to an existing electric (or natural gas) hot water heater? Coil some flexible water line in a plywood box, spray paint it all black, put a plexiglass lid on, caulk it up, and lay it out in the sun. Feed cold water through it before it hits your hot water heater.
It probably would not be as efficient as a commercial solution, but it would be very cheap.
Don't forget about water safety, backflow valves, or local plumbing and building codes. Or winter - would want a bypass valve for flushing and draining it.
I think you are right and there are gains to be had with a hybrid system. I’m handy with plumbing and I think it is something I could figure out but the problem is, as always for everyone, I have so many other things going on I that don’t have the time to figure out a DIY system.
The best time to do an install is when you’re looking at buying a water heater either way. Thus significantly reducing the price premium. Further, sizing a system to also handle home heating is generally where the real savings takes place.
As to warranty, they generally last well past that point. You may be replacing a part or to at ~10 years, but a 20+ year lifespan is common depending on the model and your water hardness.
The really nasty issue with heat pumps that I suspect is going to start biting countries which go for them in a big way is that a lot of the costs of supplying electricity depend on peak demand, not average demand, and because they're so much less efficient in cold weather when heating demand is at its highest they simply don't reduce peak demand in the same way that they do average.
> Electric heating via heat pump is ridiculously efficient
Strictly speaking that's "electrically assisted" heating. What most people refer to as electric heating is the conversion of electricity directly into heat, eg. by a resistive element.
It is a bit of gatekeeping that has little relation with reality.
When people say that their home is heated by natural gas, they mean that they have a supply of natural gas, and that is the consumable they use / pay for, not the specific chemical process when it is oxidized. Similarly, when people say they heat their home with electricity, whether it's a heat pump or electric radiators is just a secondary possibility. I heat my home with electricity and it's a ground-source heat pump. If someone has some weird hangup or ignorance about that, that's on them.
If someone said that they cooled their home in the winter with "electricity assistance" I think everyone would rightly laugh.
> You're claiming that when mostly people say "electric heating" they are specifically excluding heat pumps?
No, just pointing out the usual definition of electric heating. A heat pump doesn't necessarily even use electricity. The mechanical power for the compressor (assuming a refrigerant based heat pump) could come from anywhere.
Yes if you analyze it thermodynamically heating via natural gas is terrible. You're taking a high quality source of energy (a flame at 3500 degF) and turning it into the thermodynamic equivalent of garbage (hot air at 70 degF). All the work it could have done (say generating electricity) is tossed.
Which is where district heating comes in. Utilities, who unlike households are fully exposed to fluctuations of the electricity market, are increasingly switching their cogen pants to decoupled operation where large heat storage elements are added so that the plant can run as a peaker plant. It's not glamorous because they are still burning fossil fuel, but it's a huge improvement not only over separate burning for heat but also over synchronous cogen that would follow the heart demand. It's even a reasonable long term investment because a fully decarbonized economy would shave supply peaks with power-to-gas.
An example from Hamburg is the Energiebunker. I went on a tour a few years ago which I can recommend. One comment was they had trouble with the local landlords not wanting to take up the offer resulting in poor utilisation.
Yeah, in practice I think district heating is probably the only way to actually improve on the thermodynamic efficiency of just taking all that high-grade energy and converting it straight to low-grade heat. Running heat pumps off electricty from non-cogeneration gas plants can only roughly match the efficiency of gas heating, and smaller-scale CHP setups have efficiency losses that make them questionable.
There is so much natural gas in Sibiria, due to climate change warming the permafrost, it will just escape into the atmosphere, before we come close to burning it all.
I don't have anything against heat pumps. I just don't think that they would solve the problems the article is talking about. I would put heat pumps all over the place, once electric energy, transportation etc. are 100% renewable.
I don't know why you are downvoted because this is pretty correct. Electricity is the most valuable form of energy that currently should only be used for heating in exceptional cases if no alternatives are present.
In my experience renewable energy, electricity and nuclear are highly controversial topics on HN. Like with this post, I often get heavily up- and downvoted by different camps. It correlates with time of day, so I suspect I have a European perspective.
Do I understand correctly from the article, that these negative prices are so that the suppliers can still claim their subsidy for supplying you. They are effectively giving you a cut of the subsidy?
I believe it's rather about making sure the power gets drawn and it's more about the power from the slow plants, like coal.
Basically:
strong wind -> a lot of wind power -> coal plant can't lower its output -> excess energy -> pay somebody for allowing you to dump your power in their system
But whether you see this as a problem of coal not being able to power down quick enough or wind not being a steady power source is dependent on whether you think CO2 emissions are bad or not.
I love the slightly dishonest comments like this one.
Wind power caused the instability but you fault the coal for not being able to compensate for it.
What happens when you have 100 wind/solar and too much energy... Who do you fault then?
Coal is bad, obviously. But don't use that fact to scapegoat it so you can ignore the glaring problem with renewables that all electro engineers in Europe are screaming about: critically increasing instability of the grid due to improper rollout of renewables.
I literally pointed out that the "who is at 'fault'" questions depends on how you frame the problem.
> But whether you see this as a problem of coal not being able to power down quick enough or wind not being a steady power source is dependent on whether you think CO2 emissions are bad or not.
What exactly is improper about the current rollout of renewables? The missing storage (batteris, gas)? True! But this would not be a problem if we had gas plants instead of coal, which can turn on and off much quicker. So again, you could frame this as improper rollout of renewables or as coal not being able to handle the new realities of the energy market.
I actually agree with you about the issues we are facing and I see your comment as a very valuable addition to my comment, which simplified the issue too much, losing important detail. I was not trying to be dishonest.
Anyway, my critique is of the 'if we had gas plants'. But we don't. I see building a wind farm without storage as a similar thing to building a coal plant without a high chimney and filters. Sure, your making energy but your just making everyone deal with your shit while making everything worse.
Renewables are, currently, incompatible with the current grid past a certain percentage of total production. Anything past that point requires a much more responsible approach. Aka storage is to wind what a damn is to hydro.
Now gas can help. But gas isn't storage, it can only help smooth out the bigger disturbances.
But since we're already having issues with storage and we're still just at the 'smooth out instabilities' part... I have no idea how we're going to deal with baseload since no one wants to touch nuclear and we can't build them anyway even if we wanted to.
I think it's mostly due to the structure of the market: you can't sensibly reduce supply of power when demand drops like with commodities like oil. So the price is the only free variable left.
get up get up...lets wash our clothes right now, free, and then some, electricity.
I always wondered what happened if there was 100units of energy in the system and only 90 were used in that minute/hour. I imagined a place where they offloaded it to the ground, much like lightning.
See... If politics hadn't fucked up for the last decades, and bowed down to the four large energy companies in Germany, we could have a wide variety of storage options to do something useful with all that excess energy...
I'm rather a noob in the topic, but I've been reading in recent months about energy market and it seems like a collective insanity in the light of the climate crisis.
- In most(whole?) Europe, electricity used by trains is taxed higher than jet fuel used by planes (legacy measure from decades ago which was meant to boost air market; of course now it's hugely difficult to change it)
- Germany went strongly into renewables which is laudable, but CO2 footprint barely changed, because...
- Going away from nuclear and into renewables is in theory good, but the open secret is that you can never reach 100% renewables. So you need a backup, which is either gas or coal. In fact Germany even recently invested in new coal powered plants.
- Basically the effect of going away from nuclear is increasing CO2 emissions, and this is the last thing that we want at this time. But even Macron wants to reduce nuclear % in power production of France. Which means more CO2.
Renewables will never be competitive in a market that they dominate because they are intermittent and you can't just turn a city off because it's cloudy and calm.
Nuclear power is the only solution but decades of delusion have made it impossible to build anywhere. In short industrial civilization will be non-viable in the tropics by the 2050s and world wide by the 2100s.
It is not delusion, but simple economics what makes it impossible to build new nuclear plants. The Obama administration granted permissions to build new plants, but few people were interested because fracking made gas cheaper - but even the ones that were built required loan guarantees from the government. The private sector wasn't able to find a solution by itself.
A nuclear power plant requires billions in up front costs, which take a long period of time to recover, a time which can not be calculated reliably because nobody can predict the future and nobody knows how technology may evolve during that time and how will it affect power prices, how future wars will affect supply, how much demand developing nations will bring to the markets, etc. Even if nuclear power is cheap, the margins are not static and betting billions without knowing when you will get them back is not something everyone wants to do.
Nuclear is going to need a lot of government subsidies if it wants to have a renaissance.
If that's true then why isn't every country replacing their old nuclear plants with new designs? Why keep around legacy plants like Fukushima that had obvious design mistakes (emergency generator was flooded)?
Renewables will never be competitive in a market that they dominate because they are intermittent and you can't just turn a city off because it's cloudy and calm. Nuclear power is the only solution but decades of delusion have made it impossible to build anywhere.
This is simply wrong.
Firstly, renewables plus transmission reduce the intermittentcy problem enormously. China has multiple 2000km+ transmission lines already working, and preliminary work has started on a 3800km transmission line from Australia to Singapore[1].
Combine that with comparatively small amounts of short term storage (eg, batteries), as much long term storage (eg pump hydro) as possible and fill the rest with gas generation (around 30% of the CO2 output of coal or oil) and you have a generation mix that is very quick to build, competitive with coal on price and dramatically cheaper than nuclear.
No one knows what the Chinese power grid does because it is a national secret. You can have a look at the power grids of the first world, like the European, North America and Australian ones.
Europe is the only one with a true large scale interconnected grid[0] and even there the interconnects are expensive, small and marginal. With the majority of EU population being able to import or export only ~20% of the power generated locally.
The US and Australian grids are even less connected, with the project you're quoting being simply a pipe dream to steal money from idiots. I've worked in data analysis for an energy company and renewables are amazing because they make the energy markets volatile and unpredictable. They allow rent-seeking in power generation. Something that hadn't been possible for decades.
The Chinese power grid isn't especially secret. Data is available here[1] or a good write-up on Wikipedia[2].
I live in Australia so I know it pretty well. My state (South Australia) has multiple ~1000km interconnects with more being planned.
Australia remains badly underconnected compared to other markets. Wikipedia has good data[3], and your idea about "looking at the first world" is dramatically outdated.
Most new power generation is being done in Asia (and to some degree Africa) which is where these long distance power transmission lines are mostly being built. If you don't trust the Chinese ones (not sure why - you can go visit a lot of these installations because the hydro dams are tourist attractions, and you can see them on Google Maps) you can just look at the multiple 1000km+ installations in India[4].
I thought that this was the case but I did some reading and I was very surprised at how little HVDC lines lose - roughly 3% per 1000km (a lot less than AC transmission).
The new Ultra high voltage lines in China and elsewhere are even more efficient.
This explains why the Chinese are able to keep their power generation capacity so far away from their main population centres.
Nuclear is subsidised by billions of dollars, starting from the ongoing research to buying land to construction to security to the massive grid investments needed for any new power plant, to security and contingency measures to finally the eventually externalised costs of (unlikely but possible) incidents and most importantly long-term storage and decommissioning.
Huge huge tax payer subsidies are put into all stages of nuclear, which never show up on the energy company's balance sheets or the 'operating costs'.
I'm not against nuclear but saying renewables are not competitive with this is incredibly naive and blatantly wrong - the subsidies and funds directly or indirectly provided for nuclear are on an entirely different scale than for renewables, which have mainly some research funding, grid extension and development subsidies behind them.
To actually answer this question is hard. The best answer I've seen is between 3% and 10% of total grid capacity, depending on interconnectivity and geographical diversity[1].
That's for a 100% renewable approach, which is great. Personally I think there is a role for gas fired stations - these produce about 50% of the emissions of coal stations, are cheap and quick to build (very roughly $1M for 1MW) and most importantly can ramp up and down power generation quickly and economically.
There's always the opinion that solar is useless on cloudy days. It's my understanding that on a normal cloudy day they're only 25% as efficient as when sunny, and 10% when it's really cloudy. So, not great, but it's something that is being improved upon all the time.
> In some cases, clouds can actually result in better panel performance than standard sunny weather. A cloud can reflect or sometimes even magnify sunlight, which results in additional power output from your solar panels. [0]
In my country (Oz) we have two states that are into solar: SA has a tesla battery plant (built in <100 days) [1], but more as a 'surge saver', and WA which has recently mentioned it's about to reach serious trouble because solar is now getting in the way of it's existing non-renewable coal (meaning there's an over supply). WA doesn't have battery storage up and running, whereas in SA the tesla plant can ramp up demand almost instantaneously and is saving a bucket load of cash per year (because the coal plants don't need to spin up another turbine to meet demand: something which takes hours to achieve AND is costly)
> "We know that the 100 megawatt capacity of the existing Hornsdale battery has saved South Australian electricity consumers $40 million per year since its inception," he said. [1]
- easy to set up, low cost, easy to maintain, easy to upgrade, easy to switch off if over supply ever happens.
- good for moving away from coal provided you have storage.
As other's have mentioned, the nuclear option costs billions and takes years to set up whereas battery storage of renewables is very very quick indeed to set up, and instantly produces savings.
Note that in Australia the Victorian interconnector to South Australia went down recently at the same time as a coal station outage in Victoria.
South Australia ran on 55% renewables, 65% gas, while powering the Portland aluminium smelter in Victoria for 55 days[1][2].
Also - outside solar - most Australian states gets significant power from renewables (wind and hydro). Right now as I write this roughly 30% of the power in Queensland is solar, 20% in NSW, about 10% is wind in Victoria with another 15% being solar. In South Australia about 20% is gas, with all the rest being wind and solar. Tasmania is 100% renewable (almost all hydro)[3].
This is very emotive language, which is fine, but there is no currently projected scenario where mass extinction is inevitable or even likely.
Great, but we don't have the transmission, storage or gas generation currently.
We are well on the way. In many parts of the world this is the majority energy mix already.
So we need to spend trillions to build a system that still produces enough CO2
This is untrue. It's roughly the same cost as replacing coal stations with new coal stations, which is roughly ten times cheaper than replacing them with nuclear. And it cuts energy production C02 production by about 70% which is easily enough to meet most targets to stabilise the climate.
The poster said ‘a mass extinction’ which does not mean what you seem to think it does:
“An extinction event (also known as a mass extinction or biotic crisis) is a widespread and rapid decrease in the biodiversity on Earth.”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_event
It seems very fair - even overly cautious! - to push the inevitability of that out to 2100 when many would say it is already in progress.
However the OP said (in their original post): In short industrial civilization will be non-viable in the tropics by the 2050s and world wide by the 2100s.
I took it in that context. I'd also note the there are multiple causes of mass extinction of which climate change is one.
Well, what else are you going to suggest? Obsolete monolithic nuclear plants? Pro nuclear activists don't actually know the trade offs between nuclear plant designs and the inherent problems that are caused by "super projects". It's just a pet peeve to differentiate themselves from the "green hippies".
Where are all the modular reactor factories that the nuclear industry needs? Why is everyone focusing on one shot construction of nuclear infrastructure instead of keeping it alive by periodically replacing existing reactors?
Let me describe the way nuclear power plants have been built. Company E wants to build a power plant. It cannot take advantage of an old design because those have been declared unsafe. They only want to build a single one but they are forced to make a custom design. The custom design costs hundreds of millions in R&D before it can be approved by the government. Afterwards the company has to ask for government support because a 10-30 billion dollar project is very difficult to finance and insure by a single company. Now the construction phase begins. Making parts for nuclear power plants requires specialized factories which are often already running at capacity because they are busy with other projects. You can now wait a year or more for the parts to be delivered. Alternatively you can also construct factories dedicated to the construction of nuclear power plants. Once you have all the parts and finished the construction process you can run the nuclear plant for 50 years or more. 30 years later a design defect has been discovered. It can be fixed but it requires a partial redesign. 2 billion have to be spent on upgrades. Now 50 years have passed and the plant is reaching the end of its life. The design is now considered obsolete and should be replaced immediately. The government is now on the hook for the decommissioning process. Costs? Unknown but definitively not less than 10 billion dollars. Because decommissioning is so expensive the government keeps the plant online for another 15 years. Your country has several dozens of these plants and once someone makes a critical mistake or a natural disaster strikes you get a Chernobyl or Fukushima type event again. These power plants are responsible for the bad reputation of the nuclear industry but at the same time the industry willingly took the risk. They have nobody to blame but themselves.
Ok, what if we just get rid of those plants and replace them with new ones? The cycle repeats. New design. No economies of scale. New custom factories because the old ones didn't have any customers for 65 whole years. Mistakes can't be fixed. Again, this is not something that green activists forced these companies to do.
You know what the answer to these problems is? Making lots of small nuclear power plants. Companies can afford them. They can be cheaply mass produced. They can be cheaply replaced. Custom factories are maintained over time instead of closed down. Yet strangely no nuclear activist proposes these types of reactors because they do not acknowledge the inherent problems nuclear faces. Instead, the focus lies on new designs that don't even exist but promise to do everything better without addressing any of the actually important flaws. Nuclear plant designs are like cryptographic hashing. You will always find a flaw given enough time.
The right answer is zero time, of course. A renewable smart grid includes long distance transmission lines, short term storage (batteries) and long term storage (pumped hydro). It's never been just about the panels and wind turbines.
Actually economically speaking — what reason is there to think that the total supportable size of an economy which operates with grid instability is smaller than one with perfect or nearly perfect grid predictability?
Maximizing value in a world with “power production weather” would be a valuable task from which rewards that aren’t necessarily obvious could be mined if the pursuit becomes incentivized on a larger scale.
> Actually economically speaking — what reason is there to think that the total supportable size of an economy which operates with grid instability is smaller than one with perfect or nearly perfect grid predictability?
The short answer is pretty much all of them. It's pretty much canonical that it is economically more productive to have a resource continually available than not. The right economic question to ask is: Where does the marginal cost of increasing uptime meet the marginal benefit of further increased uptime?
>Nuclear power is the only solution but decades of delusion have made it impossible to build anywhere. In short industrial civilization will be non-viable in the tropics by the 2050s and world wide by the 2100s.
I wonder why they don't find a location on planet which is most stable, away from human settlement.
Then create a nuclear reactor large enough to meet all the world requirement for electricity and supply it to all the world.
Because the cost of transmission will be even higher. Moving large amounts of electricity over large distances is hard; it’s much cheaper to move gas or oil.
Not any more. China's longest power transmission link is 3324 km. 1.1 megavolts DC. 12 gigawatts. Running for over a year. Equivalent to moving 30 million tons of coal per year.
China's cheap power sources (coal and hydro) are in the northwestern part of the country, and the big loads are in the southeastern part. So many HVDC links are going in.
The US's biggest HVDC link is Oregon to California, opened in 1970.
Interesting, though I would like to see more cost comparisons.
Some negatives I've found are UHV lines used for renewable transmission will see low utilization and the switching equipment is quite unreliable so overcapacity is needed.
The German CO2 footprint for electricity production decreased quite a bit in recent years, in 2019 46% of all electricity was produced by renewables. The progress is compensated by the traffic sector increasing fuel consumption at the same time.
France has the problem, that they are not able to build enough new reactors (cost, construction time) to replace the aging operating reactors. So ramping up renewables is the logical conclusion and besides having quite a lot of hydro power already installed, France has great potential of wind (very windy coasts at 3 sides of the country) and solar (sunny south).
>- Going away from nuclear and into renewables is in theory good, but the open secret is that you can never reach 100% renewables. So you need a backup, which is either gas or coal.
I am not really opposed to nuclear. But on the renewable side, for the intermittency problem, you have overprovisioning, regional transmission, short range storage with batteries, and long term storage with hydro and hydrogen gas produced from renewables. And both batteries and hydrogen gas are steadily getting cheaper.
That means when a utility is deciding to spend 10 billion or so on a nuclear plant, and it is trying to figure out future rates for the next 30 years to pay that back, it needs to take into account all these future developments, instead of assuming they will stay the same.
I have read a lot of comments from nuclear supporters, but I can't recall one that covers all that. They all seem to assume the situation for storage and interconnection will not improve in the future.
There's a lot that can be done with renewables without nuclear or fossils, you can use demand response, batteries, hydro storage, and compressed air storage to store very cheap electricity.
Not everywhere has sites that are good for pumped-hydro storage, typically requiring an existing hydro electric dam.
Compressed air is very inefficient.
But the general argument is: we need to consider what is happening now, not what could be possible under some idealised hypothetical scenario. And right now more renewables, without more, or maintaining existing, nuclear means more base-load coal and more load-following gas.
The problems aren't really technical, they're political. Politics appears to be ill-equipped to deal with these problems.
This is just the typical diversion rhetoric. According to all IPCC reports I've seen, you can't accomplish with renewables without nuclear what you can accomplish with renewables and nuclear, yet all political bodies promote renewables and fossil fuels while pretending it's just renewables.
How is it diversionary to state examples of how renewables can be stored? That is literally the crux of the issue, we need storage for renewables. Nuclear sounds great on paper but look at new capacity additions. No one except China is adding nuclear. So to bring it up over and over here, Many HN commenters simply can't get over the fact that nuclear is way way way more expensive than renewables. Storage is the clear answer, unless you can point me to recently built nuclear and how cheap it is?
How about South Carolina? Oh that was a massive fiasco that cost the ratepayers billions for literally nothing. If they spent those billions on solar, efficiency, and demand response, they'd have far cheaper and cleaner electricity. Instead they wasted billions on a nuclear facility that will never be finished.
> In fact Germany even recently invested in new coal powered plants.
Any sources on this? In Australia in the past few weeks Germany is given as an ideal example of a country decommissioning all of its coal mines and power plants.
We are decommissioning them. The plan was quite badly executed.
Basically, in order to set a deadline, politicians decided to compensate power plant owners for their losses. Problem is: suddenly, all power plant owners came up with very optimistic plans on how long they would’ve kept each plant running.
This would’ve been acceptable to a certain degree if the plan to shut down plants was aggressive to begin with. However, the phase-out plan is largely in line with the plant’s lifespans anyway, so we’re not actually shutting anything off very early.
Reactions have been very mixed, to say the least.
On the bright side, it does close the discussion around coal energy once and for all, but for an unnecessarily high price.
The only ongoing commissioning of a coal fired plant is Datteln 4. Construction was started 13 years ago to replace several ageing coal fired power plants. Due to technical and legal delays it will go online in 2020. Several other power plants will go offline afterwards, roughly with the same generation capacity as Datteln 4. I think it is safe to assume that this will be the last newly built coal fired power plant in Germany.
You're not hearing about it because it's very embarrassing to Germans, as it should be in my honest opinion. I get that Germans have a very unique and real perspective on the use of nuclear power. I get that nuclear power has very real and serious risks. It's still done less harm to the planet and the things that live on it than the use of coal. Furthermore, the forced dependence on fossil fuels as a result of shunning nuclear power has all kinds of add on effects. There's no Germany without Russian gas, and Putin knows it.
Maybe I am wrong, but the way I see it Germany is sacrificing the overall less negatively impactful option (nuclear power) for fossil fuel because they are unwilling or unable to confront the cultural stance on use of nuclear power. That's the norm for cultures so I don't blame them for it, but I do think it's leading to the wrong choice here.
I'm sure locals and many others know far more about this than I. I'm very happy with Germany's 2050 renewable plan which is way more than my country would ever think about doing.
One would wish. In reality it's quite difficult. We are rebuilding the whole electricity landscape for a country with 80+ million people. The time frame for this is 50 years.
There are lots of factors which are working against it. For example Germany has heavy coal resources (unlike France for example) and it's the largest domestic source of energy. Thus the country has used it for many many decades and this brought wealth and employment to people. Now to tell them that their coal-related jobs will be replaced is creating massive resistance in certain federal states against changing that.
Nuclear wouldn't have been a feasible solution in Germany in the long run, because it is just too expensive. You may argue that the shut down of running plants was premature, but nuclear subsidies eclipsed those of renewables by quite a margin. Building new reactors isn't easy, France is struggling with it for example, although I don't think their strategy is bad.
> you can never reach 100% renewables
partly true, partly wrong, depending on your infrastructure and topology, but there are other options to satisfy a CO2 neutral base load than nuclear.
CO2 emission are actually dropping, although far too slow to call it healthy.
The per capita output is somewhere in the middle of industrial first world countries. Sometimes better than countries employing nuclear power, sometimes not. I think the effect is sometimes overestimated. It may be better than coal, but it should be noted that newer coal plants replace older ones that are more inefficient.
All other power sources, except maybe hydro, are almost perfectly safe. They're a lot more damaging to people's health and the environment, yes, but that is a different thing from danger.
I wrote "in the long term" for a reason, by the way. I'd prefer to get rid of coal before nuclear despite the danger.
Because old nuclear power stations are coming to end of life, and new nuclear power stations appear to be ruinously expensive. See Flamanville which was supposed to be finished about 10 years and €10bn ago.
The real idiocy in Germany was retiring the nuclear plants before EOL. If you’re trying to work out whether to replace old nuclear with new it’s much less easy to come to a clear answer. Britain has had the same issue, most people are quite enthusiastic about new nuclear but it’s just really expensive.
It’s the issue with most of these small-n construction projects. Perhaps modular nuclear can be a solution.
Because there are serious problems with the disposal of highly radioactive waste.
As of now there is no proper solution in Europe for the disposal of that stuff.
There are a few, work in progress, storage facilities like Asse in Germany which are blocked by local politics.
Lots of the stuff just circles around on the European rail network on its way from temporary storage to temporary storage.
On top these French and especially the Belgian nuclear reactors are in a horrible state. Just have a look at Thiange and you would never want to be near that thing.
And did I say the Belgians have no idea what to do whith the waste too.
Or alternatively/in combination with dynamic demand, smart grids, wide area transmission and overprovisioning.
I don't really get why the nuclear "base load" generation even helps. If nuclear generates 70% of our peak load, and our peak load happens on a windless, dark day - what then? We still need storage and likely CCGT as backup of last resort.
France shows, how much effort it takes to generate a stable grid with electricity being produced mostly by nuclear power plants. Due to the limitations in regulating the power output, they have to operate the power plants not at the most efficient load but a lower one which gives them more regulation capability. Also, using up the electricity at night becomes a challenge. Belgium for example installed huge streetlights on their highways so they can increase the night load.
Which does not actually mean turning off the power grid for hours as a lot of people here claim but things like throttling down energy-intensive industry at peak times and running non-time-critical jobs when there's surplus energy.
Many reasons for the slow fall are based in politics (coal industry is a job machine especially in the troubled eastern parts) and nimbys (hindering wind development) and politicians helping them out (ridiculous policies governing the distance to "settlements").
Subsidies for those who don't pollute seems like such a backwards solution compared to taxing those who do pollute. If you want people to stop dumping trash in your backyard do you think it's saner to punish those who do or to reward everyone else in your neighborhood who gets rid of their trash in other ways?
The atmosphere and its ability to contain a limited amount of carbon is a public good, and we should stop giving away the right to dump stuff in it for free.
I've not checked this particular occurrence yet, so it's possible there's good news, but I've never found one of these "renewables cause negative prices" stories yet where the system was actually running on 100% renewable.
Usually there's some coal or gas supply that decides for whatever reason to not turn itself off. Often because ramp downs and then up again will cost them more than the negative price.
So it's all geeky accounting, but basically non renewables are being fined so they make slightly less money overall if they aren't flexible to demand.
Jean Marc Jancovici is a french energy expert, and he often talks about Germany.
An important story to remember about Germany, is how Fukushima led the country to stop using nuclear power. Merkel has a PhD in physics, so naturally she understands that nuclear power is green and just better than renewable and coal.
But after Fukushima, she was forced to stop nuclear plants, because as Jancovici argued, she is an "assermented executor": if all germans want to stop nuclear energy, then there's nothing to do.
> An important story to remember about Germany, is how Fukushima led the country to stop using nuclear power. Merkel has a PhD in physics, so naturally she understands that nuclear power is green and just better than renewable and coal.
Merkel was also the responsible minister for reactor safety. She understands the risks, too.
> But after Fukushima, she was forced to stop nuclear plants
No, the exit was long before decided. The conservative government was trying to exit from the exit. But that would had created mass protests. Then Fukushima happened and basically everyone went back to the already agreed exit.
> nuclear power is green and just better than renewable and coal
How do you arrive at that conclusion? Better in what regard?
AFAIK nuclear power has all sorts of problems, the main one being that nobody knows what to do about the waste. Building nuclear power plants isn’t exactly carbon emission free either.
Dealing with the waste is not a problem. Dealing with the fear around the waste is. The amount of radioactive waste from coal plants is a far bigger problem than the very minor volumes of waste from nuclear, a lot of which can be used as fuel for breeder reactors.
Once we've decommissioned all coal power plants, then it might be reasonable to assess whether or not continued investment in nuclear is worthwhile, but until then decommissioning nuclear is actively causing harm, including huge numbers of deaths, by keeping more coal plants operational.
> AFAIK nuclear power has all sorts of problems, the main one being that nobody knows what to do about the waste
You're breathing the wastes of fossil fuel based energy sources every single second of your life and it will 100% reduce your life expectancy and quality of life.
The best case scenario of fossil fuel based energy production is worst than the worst case scenario of nuclear based energy production.
The waste is a non-problem, especially when you compare with co2 over decades.
Nuclear energy emits less co2 than renewables: it requires less metals (especially if you store electricity with batteries or other means), and renewables are not baseload energies, meaning you need to burn either coal or gas when there's no sun or wind.
Wind mills require a lot of metals, and installing them is complicated. Solar panels require mining elements, and solar panels degrade over time.
As it was answered above in another comment, there are far more deaths caused by coal (particles, radioactivity of coal fumes). Stop the nuclear fear-mongering.
You need less mining for uranium.
Reactors have a huge lifespan. They're cheap and clean when considering the energy they bring.
You are comparing CO2 emission and use of metal and completely ignore the catastrophic systemic risk of nuclear power.
There has been many events where nuclear waste has been dumped in the ocean, misplaced, lost, improperly buried, leaked in rivers, caught fire and even deliberately used in projectiles and dispersed in the environment.
And this is nothing compared to the risk of exposing large amounts of waste during a war or terrorist attack.
> But after Fukushima, she was forced to stop nuclear plants, because as Jancovici argued, she is an "assermented executor": if all germans want to stop nuclear energy, then there's nothing to do.
I live in Germany. Seems a different country from the one you describe.
Merkel wanted to keep nuclear energy, but again, if the Germans disagree, she can't makes decisions on her own. Democracy doesn't prevent bad decisions, and it's vulnerable to misinformation and emotional opinions.
Do German households even have smart meters? To me this is the most important thing in a renewable world. I'd imagine the wholesale market electricity was free but consumers pay a fixed charge that doesn't change even on windy days. The most important thing is changing people's behaviour on the peak cold windless cloudy days when the market price is high people shouldn't be washing clothes or ironing or using electric heating.
If I understand this article correctly: The 2016 law to install smart meters came into effect Feb/2020. Well for those households over 6000 kWh. It's expected that 10% of households will have those within 3 years. https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Intelligente-Stromza...
The wording of the current title is unnecessarily insulting. The point of the article is that Germans don't use electricity to heat their homes because the weird economics plus possibly some sunk costs favor natural gas or oil. Germans aren't sitting around in the cold winters wearing parkas and shaking their thrifty fists at the powers that be.
"Only turbines built in 2016 or later take even a small hit to their revenues if prices go below zero, and more than 75 % of the production capacity was built before that."
That seems like a recipe for folks just building endlessly regardless of demand, pulling money from government... and an eventual mess when you fix it and nobody is making money suddenly...
> building endlessly regardless of demand, pulling money from government
But that's not what happens. Germany has a tight control over how much is build every year. Actually there are lots of complaints that currently Germany builds not enough renewable energy capacity per year.
The market currently has some weird effects, but the 0 price you mention is not the price of electricity on the market. It is the price on the spot market in some days or hours. The whole market is larger than short-term traded electricity.
3) Run CCS plant using renewable energy. Charge your customers (people who need to offset their carbon footprint by buying carbon credits, such as big industry).
I'm sorry I thought I was clear. Let me try to make it clearer:
> That seems like a recipe for folks just building endlessly regardless of demand
In some ways, yes. If so, it definite could create a problem wherein there's more supply than demand.
> pulling money from government...
The ethics of government capture aside, this sounds to me like that's rather the _point_ of a government subsidy on something: to build more supply of that something.
> and an eventual mess when you fix it and nobody is making money suddenly...
Fix what? The idea that there's too much electricity and so nobody makes money? Then come up with another way to use the electricity. Charge money to use the excess electricity for something useful. For example: capturing carbon.
Nobody is going to pay for mining rigs that are idle 99% of the time.
If it happened enough you'd have people set up cheap resistor banks to eat all the excess, so that provides a natural cap on how much negative pricing there can be.
While subsidies are one cause, another cause is demand response problems:
Imagine you have a greenhouse factory producing strawberries. The strawberries come out of the factory on a conveyor belt. Now, you can't just turn off this factory easily since it might take a week to get it up running again and you don't have any storage, so what happens when nobody wants your strawberries for a day?
You pay someone to take them.
And yes, it happens to physical products too, e.g. household electronics - you need to pay someone to scrap them.
A better example would be plastic production. In an emergency stop, factories need to change several pipes because the plastic solidified inside. Stopping production properly takes days, and even then, resuming it also takes days.
This happens when the electricity supply is higher than the demand. It only affects the wholesale rate, not consumer rates (at least in Uk and US)
Normally supply and demand need to be matched to obtain a balance. If the supply is not enough for demand then the frequency drops below 50Hz, if it drops too low bad things happen.
The renewable generators get a subsidy for each kWh that they pump on to the grid. The logical thing to do if electricity were oversupplied, i.e. you have to pay people to take it, would be to temporarily shut down some renewable generation, but then the renewable providers would lose out on the subsidy for those kWh.
TL; DR: crazy taxes based off quantity rather than price make electricity cost 200 €/MWh even when the base cost is free, whereas natural gas is taxed lightly, making it cheaper to the consumer.
Hooray for the energy market being disrupted. It's a sign of the success of government subsidies to renewable power. Obviously adjustments are required as the disruption proceeds. Hopefully governments and private concerns in Europe can cooperate to make workable new rules and tariffs. I'm not so hopeful in the US because our federal government is the servant of big oil.
Here in Massachusetts USA I pay USD0.24 per kWh delivered to my home (generation + transmission + distribution + taxes). Our energy markets are generally mired in 19th-century ways of measuring, so it's harder to tell what natural gas costs (what is a therm???) But I believe it's about USD0.08 per kWh.
I've just signed up for "community solar." A developer is building a PV farm (in the median strip of a large highway, I believe). It will save me on generation costs, but not transmission or distribution, so my rate will fall to about USD0.18 I believe.
Here we have high generation costs partly because Hydro Quebec drove a hard long-term bargain ("take-or-pay" they call it) with our electric company long ago. Towns with municipal power usually pay less because they're not stuck with Hydro Quebec, but sometimes pay more.
I could go on and on, but here's the thing. It's expensive for generators to participate in long-distance grids. Why? If their AC frequency drifts even a tiny amount, the grid must disconnect. How can companies maintain the AC frequency under heavy load?
1. expensive and filthy peak-load generators (diesel-powered often) spinning ready to take load.
2. big batteries. Telsa and some Australian government utilities have had great success with this.
3. excess renewable capacity. But at times of heavy demand there isn't any.
4. SMART DISTRIBUTION: the ability to quickly and selectively shed load temporarily. Space- and water- heating are perfect applications for this. So is battery charging for transportation.
We aren't nearly done with the disruption yet. Now it starts to get interesting. Electricity companies are in the information business; they just don't know it yet.
Basically, just wear a sweater and long pants in the house in the winter so you don't have to heat it so much. And if you need to, put a heat source near you, but there's no need to heat the whole house.
Hypothesis I would like to test one day - does the increase in calories (and therefore additional energy used to produce food) to heat your body offset the energy saved by reduced heating. Start by assuming person living alone.
Then could take it a step further increase number of people and take into account the body heat of each person (people produce alot of heat + water)
Mhm, sounds good. But when your walls are too cold and your humidity too high (cooking, showering, breathing, plants...) you run into mold issues fast, so it's not that easy.
Germans are heating their homes just not with electricity. A better title for the article would be, "Germans won't heat their homes with electricity even when it is free."
Cryto-mining with excess energy is only effective when you have excess computing power too. Maybe a gamer with a GPU could get the opportunity to use all the excess resources for a little bit of profit, but the payoff rate for buying a GPU needs 24/7 mining to even make a profit over a year.
It's not always free. What's the prices when it's not free? Do you just take a bath on profitability every time you have to pay higher prices when there is demand? Do you not mine when it's not free?
Do renewables need massive subsidies to sustain themselves or do politics offer massive subsidies because they want to have even more renewable energy?
I feel I should point out that "a very windy day" is a big understatement. February 10, 2020 was the day when storm Sabine arrived in northern Europe. In Germany, all medium and long distance trains stopped (electric trains, btw), and plenty of people stayed inside. Lots of closed schools, too.
I don't necessarily disagree with the article's central points. But picking up the one outlier in which there's ridiculous amounts of wind and entire countries are working at half capacity seems naive at best.