The 40,000 new cases per day is predominantly a function of the number of tests being run. The number of actual infections has far outpaced the number of tests. Look at test positivity rate across NYC for example.
If instead we had done random sampling we could have been very accurately projecting the number of active cases pretty easily, but apparently we’ve mostly decided not to do that until now with the antibody studies.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d...
If instead we had done random sampling we could have been very accurately projecting the number of active cases pretty easily, but apparently we’ve mostly decided not to do that until now with the antibody studies.