I am ambivalent about a downturn but the resumption of student loan repayments could pull $100B ($9B/mo) out of the market [1] - which might directly impact Epic's market.
I don't know about them, but I do know that between rising costs and already insufficient wages and sallaries, a growing number of people are riding on the absolute edge of solvency. All it takes is one big push.
Like, for example: an end to pauses on payments for debts, expiring eviction bans/moratoriums, companies looking to dump housing and commercial buildings causing a collapse in prices that other financial instruments depend on, government shutdown (and financial consequences of just the threat) leading an enormous group of already marginal people to fall over the edge.
And that's just a few minutes of coming up with plausible things. Something has to give and, historically speaking, something will.
They say that there’s long and variable lag between the monetary policy being made and its effects on the economy.
Soon after they started hiking the rates there were some of the biggest bank failures in US history which amounted to nothing much because they basically hit snooze on it by effectively promising to back 100% of deposits well above the FDIC threshold. Supposedly this measure runs out in a year from when it was made.
I’m not going to try and predict what and when exactly is going to happen. If you like lines and extrapolation, you can go to the St Louis fed website and plot yield curve inversion and effective fed rate.
