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this is interesting - couldn't a bayesian get many of the same guarantees by computing the posterior distribution and choosing a range that contains X% of the mass?


In a word, no. The reason is that if the bayesian does a really crappy job of specifying their prior distribution, the posterior will be completely inaccurate. On the other hand, if the bayesian does a good job, getting intervals as you describe will work much better (e.g. be smaller) than confidence intervals.


Frequentist as described in the grandparent post do all the analysis they can without having to assume priors.




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