Linux has been pretty solid since 1999/2000, before that it was OK for home use but you had to like messing around with it (although it's no worse than Windows was in '93...making a boot disk to play games to get around the memory limitations). Ubuntu blew the doors off when it came along and made it a Mom and Pop OS i.e. anyone could easily install and use it, I put it on my 60 year-old Aunt's computer.
Also the other reason Linux is gaining in popularity is not due to Linux, most average home computer users all do the same things; check e-mail (web based not ISP), IM (web), browse web pages - all of which are not OS dependent.
Hmmn -- surely, if something were completely independent/neutral of OS, by definition then it would not be able to exert any influence on the popularity of any OS?
So if Linux arguably is gaining in popularity because of average home users checking webmail, browsing etc; then it seems to me this must in fact be ascribable to some fundamental differentiating characteristic(s) of Linux applicable to these users.
Possible differentiators might be cost, ability to arrange for fast boot to a usable web browsing environment, reduced virus concerns, etc. etc.
There's a theory that any industry category will naturally support three competitors, in a certain market-share ratio like 60%, 30%, 10% [1]. This happens free of market manipulation, and mostly depends on marketing strategy rather than the competitors' actual merits. Think Google, MSN and Yahoo right now, for example, or car brands in the past, soft drinks, car rental companies -- there's a market leader, a rival/also-ran, and a something-different. Anyone else has trivial market share.
Following this rule, the market for operating systems is clearly out of whack. Windows' share should be much smaller, but still majority, because that's how it's marketed -- the market leader, the one everybody else uses. Apple should get the Avis spot -- #2, but we try harder. And Linux should still hold onto around 10% share, by adapting to meet the specialized needs that Joe User-oriented OSes have to leave behind.
The rise of cross-platform and platform-independent apps, and mobile devices where the OS shouldn't even be noticeable, break the network effect that supports Windows' considerable lead and allows the market shares to drift back toward the natural ranking.
[1] Closest citation: 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing, Law of the Ladder. I think Laura Ries has supported the 3-player claim more specifically.
Not necessarily, I'm sure a lot of people thought, and still think, Windows is the only choice i.e. Windows = computer. They don't realize there are other Operating Systems suitable for the home user. Now that Apple is gaining in popularity and applications such as Firefox are OS neutral people have a choice, everything is evening out and that is why Mac and Linux are gaining ground.
Also the other reason Linux is gaining in popularity is not due to Linux, most average home computer users all do the same things; check e-mail (web based not ISP), IM (web), browse web pages - all of which are not OS dependent.