Generating big chunks of code is rarely what I want from an agent. They really shine for stuff like combing through logs or scanning dozens of source files to explain a test failure. Which benchmark covers that? I want the debugging benchmark that tests mastery of build systems, CLIs, etc.
I agree. Also good for small changes that need to be applied consistently across an entire codebase.
I recently refactored our whole app from hard deletes to soft deletes. There are obviously various ways to skin this particular cat, but the way I chose needed all our deletions updated and also needed queries updating to exclude soft deleted rows, except in specific circumstances (e.g., admins restoring accidentally deleted data).
Of course, this is not hard to do manually but is is a bloody chore and tends toward error prone. But the agent made short work of it, for which I was very grateful.
Do you not end up breaking half the value of referential integrity doing it that way (e.g. you had to update all the queries but now you have a sharp edge in that all future queries need to remember to be soft delete aware. Not a blocker for sure, just a sharp edge).
You know your system better than me for sure, a random commenter on a website :-D your comment just shocked me out of my daze enough for my brain to say "but I always move the record to another table rather than soft delete" and i felt compelled to give unsolicited and likely wrong opinion.
Probably want to look at SWE bench pro or terminal bench 2. They cover these longer horizon tasks that need more than just writing a bit of code in one file. And SWE bench pro in particular it is not yet saturated like many other common benchmarks. Normal SWE and LCB are not really useful anymore because they are already being gamed hard so the developers can quote high numbers in a repo readme or press release.
I’d encourage devs to use MiniMax, Kimi, etc for real world tasks that require intelligence. The down sides emerge pretty fast: much higher reasoning token use, slower outputs, and degradation that is palpable. Sadly, you do get what you pay for right now. However that doesn’t prevent you from saving tons through smart model routing, being smart about reasoning budgets, and using max output tokens wisely. And optimize your apps and prompts to reduce output tokens.
I get decent results with Kimi, but I agree with your overall premise. You do need to realise that while you can save money on a lot of tasks with those models, for the hardest tasks the "sticker price" of cost per million tokens isn't what matters.
It's also worth noting that the approach given in the link also benefits Sonnet and Opus. Not just as much - they are more forgiving - but put it in a harness that allows for various verification and repair and they too end up producing much better results than the "raw" model. And it's not clear that a harness around MiniMax, Kimi, or Qwen can measure up then.
I use those models a lot, and hope to use them more as my harnesses get better at discriminating which tasks they are cost effective for, but it's not straightforward to cost optimize this.
If I cared about running everything locally, then sure, it's amazing you can get to those kinds of results at all.
There's this[1]. Model providers have a strong incentive to switch (a part of) their inference fleet to quantized models during peak loads. From a systems perspective, it's just another lever. Better to have slightly nerfed models than complete downtime.
Models aren't just big bags of floats you imagine them to be. Those bags are there, but there's a whole layer of runtimes, caches, timers, load balancers, classifiers/sanitizers, etc. around them, all of which have tunable parameters that affect the user-perceptible output.
It's still engineering. Even magic alien tech from outer space would end up with an interface layer to manage it :).
ETA: reminds me of biology, too. In life, it turns out the more simple some functional component looks like, the more stupidly overcomplicated it is if you look at it under microscope.
Anybody with more than five years in the tech industry has seen this done in all domains time and again. What evidence you have AI is different, which is the extraordinary claim in this case...
Real world usage suggests otherwise. It's been a known trend for a while. Anthropic even confirmed as such ~6 months ago but said it was a "bug" - one that somehow just keeps happening 4-6 months after a model is released.
Real world usage is unlikely to give you the large sample sizes needed to reliably detect the differences between models. Standard error scales as the inverse square root of sample size, so even a difference as large as 10 percentage points would require hundreds of samples.
https://marginlab.ai/trackers/claude-code/ tries to track Claude Opus performance on SWE-Bench-Pro, but since they only sample 50 tasks per day, the confidence intervals are very wide. (This was submitted 2 months ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46810282 when they "detected" a statistically significant deviation, but that was because they used the first day's measurement as the baseline, so at some point they had enough samples to notice that this was significantly different from the long-term average. It seems like they have fixed this error by now.)
It's hard to trust public, high profile benchmarks because any change to a specific model (Opus 4.5 in this case) can be rejected if they have regressions on SWE-Bench-Pro, so everything that gets to be released would perform well in this benchmark
Any other benchmark at that sample size would have similarly huge error bars. Unless Anthropic makes a model that works 100% of the time or writes a bug that brings it all the way to zero, it's going to work sometimes and fail sometimes, and anyone who thinks they can spot small changes in how often it works without running an astonishingly large number of tests is fooling themselves with measurement noise.
They do. I'm currently seeing a degradation on Opus 4.6 on tasks it could do without trouble a few months back. Obvious I'm a sample of n=1, but I'm also convinced a new model is around the corner and they preemptively nerf their current model so people notice the "improvement".
I think the conspiracy theories are silly, but equally I think pretending these black boxes are completely stable once they're released is incorrect as well.
> The $200 per month subscription comes with a ton of usage.
$200 dollars + VAT is half of my rent.
I know HN is not a good place to rant on this subject, but I'm often flabbergasted about the number of people here that lives in a bubble with regard to the price of tech. Or just prices in general.
I remember someone who said a few years ago (I'm paraphrasing): "You could just use one of the empty room in your house!". It was so outlandish I believed it was a joke at first.
I think I am in the middle. I can afford $200/m but it'd be a brainer. And I don't pay that as I barely use home AI enough to warrant it.
I am also amazed at the richer end of HN but now I realize I am priviledged. Earned it? Like fuck I did. Lucky to be born a geek in late 20c. I'd be useless as a middle ages guy.
The other part of the bubble is assuming working in projects that allow disclosing any code or project details to a generic third party with that kind of power asymmetry.
In the US/Western Europe? Because for devs especially in the former, $200 is pocket change, especially for a core productivity tool. And the rent would be in the $1200 to $3000 easily. Same for houses. Maybe not in NY or SF, but in most of the US there's no shortage of house spaces and redundant rooms.
I've seen those comments about $200/month and empty rooms here, so I suppose they mainly come from the US, yes.
So yes, you describe a situation that I feel like a lot of people here don't understand is not the norm.
I compared the subscription with my rent precisely because it's easier to compare: with your numbers it would be like paying from $600 up to $1500 / month. Pretty hard to justify.
Nah, that's why you cannot not afford the subscriptions these days. Whatever your needs, ever since Claude Code became a thing, subscription costs come out massively cheaper than pay-as-you-go per-token API pricing. Also SOTA models are so much better than anything else, that using older or open models will just cost you more in tokens/electricity than going for SOTA subscription.
Subscriptions are definitely middle-class targeted. $20/month is not much for the value provided, at least not in the western world.
But if by "rich" you just mean "westerners", then in this sense, the same is and has always been true for computing in general.
Not sure. AI is sort of car ownership price. I think while that ain't poor, that is middle class.
So like if you want to start a business of any sort the AI sub is still peanuts.
AI is a car, or a dog, or a mild social life, or a utility bill level of cost. And thats for the level needed for a sane typical developer. (AI maximalists need 250k/y, let them slop it out)
It is not a Cessna, an infinity pool or a 1 month vacation.
First, I've assumed you were in the bubble I described, but that's not the case, so sorry bout that.
Also, I think it's relevant to the conversation.
You replied to someone who said that "you" (undirected pronoun I suppose) can't afford the SOTA that the $200/month Anthropic subscription comes with a ton of usage. So I interpreted it as a general statement. It wasn't what you meant?
I'm a bit lost about who you're talking to/about in your first comment: the person you respond to, a general statement for everyone reading, or yourself?
I assume when somebody says you and is not talking about anyone in particular they mean that it's infeasible for virtually everybody which is certainly not the case. Also you conveniently disregarded the fact that is available on the $20 per month plan.
Okay, I understand better. I interpreted your answer as "well, it's $200, everybody can afford it". Clearly a misunderstanding.
Going back to the $20 plan, yes, I agree it's much more accessible.
I didn't talk about it because I've seen a lot of comments here, on blogs, on social media about how a $200 subscription for Claude is a no brainer. And it got on my nerves, so I wanted to tell how much money it can be. To you (and it was misguided reading your answers), and to concerned HN commenters in general.
I'm not sure I've correctly understood what you're implying.
If it's that I'm not working, well, I'm employed.
It it's that I'm not working enough to not have this money... Well, we still go back to the bubble. Not everywhere in the world you can easily find a job that pays you enough, even if you accept to work more. And the employer will not accept to give developers a $200/month subscription, even less for personal use.
If it's that I'm not working enough and I should go freelancing to work as much as I want and get rich (I'm extrapolating). Well, you're right, I could do that. But (at least at first), I would work a lot more for much less money. And even if I become a recognized freelancer, it doesn't change the fact that I'll earn less money compared to the baseline of SF, or even the USA in the tech sector in general. So, bubble again. I could also, like someone said, put the tokens cost into my hourly/daily rate, but I'll be much more expensive than other freelancers.
Also, but that's a "me case" compared to my previous points, health issues can greatly affect how much work you can do.
Instinctively, if we suppose all the newbies freelancers without any reputation start with the same lowest rate possible to be competitive, passing additional cost to my client will mechanically increase my rate. Putting me in disadvantage about getting any work. And with the difference of monetary value for the same price of tokens, the rate delta is higher.
It's a simplified model of the world, but it feels like simple economic rules.
I assume the comment I'm referring to was written by someone who is already established and for Wich the token cost passing is lower relatively to my environment.
>I'm often flabbergasted about the number of people here that lives in a bubble with regard to the price of tech
Sorry, no. You live in the bubble, the people you think are living in a bubble are actually doing the very opposite and taking advantage of the lack of bubbles in our globally connected world.
Today, basically anyone can sell any bullshit to billions of people around the world. We’ve never lived in less of a bubble.
The thread started with "$200 is a lot for most of the world", the person I was replying to said "no it's not, now anyone can sell to billions of people", and I said "company success being concentrated in SF shows that that's not true".
The $100 already gives plenty of usage and is more than worth it, and I'm definitely not an affluent SV developer. I've only ever hit the 5h limit once in the last month, although I rarely run more than 3 agents at once, and I don't use ridiculously expensive tools like Gas Town.
Anthropic’s $20 plan gives you such a pittance of tokens that it’s borderline unusable for anything more than a few scripts or a toy app. If $20 is all you have you’d do _much_ better going with chatgpt
Do you mostly just hit the session limits? If so I know it's not ideal but you could wait an hour or two for that to reset. Not sure if that would work for you but just a suggestion
Are you kidding me? Even developer salaries in the Philippines can afford that or at least the plan below it. If I used the Anthropic API, my monthly spend would be $4k a month. The Claude Max plan is the best bargain around.
> 200 USD/month is a number only really affluent programmers (e.g. in the Silicon Valley) can perhaps pay easily.
Not true, I live in USA PNW and my last remote job paid $12k/mo. I have been jobless for over a month now (currently waiting for the next HN "who wants to be hired"), but I still have enough savings to easily afford to continue that plan for a while.
I don't think it really has to do with affluence but more the job market and economy you're in. Countries with lower salaries or higher costs of living will have less buying power.
I'm starting to think in these conversations we're all often talking about two different things. You're talking about running an LLM service through its provided tooling (codex, Claude, cursor), others seem to be talking token costs because they're integrating LLMs into software or are using harness systems like opencode, pi, or openclaw and balancing tasks across models.
Fair enough, I read it quickly and assumed the person they replied to was talking about Claude Code
But I run a AI SaaS and we do offer Opus 4.6, too. Our use case is not nearly as token intensive as something like coding so we are still able to offer it with a good profit margin.
Also you can run OpenClaw with your CC subscription. It's what I do.
I wrap Opus 4.5 in a consumer product with 0 economic utility and people pay for it, I'm sure plenty of end users are willing to pay for it in their software.
Edit: I'm not using the term of art, I mean it literally cannot make them money.
> It is not my fault if Claude outputs something like "*1*, *1*", adding markdown highlighting, when most other models respect the required format correctly.
Yuck. At that point don't publish a benchmark, explains why their results are useless too.
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Edit since I'm not able to reply to the below comment:
"I want structured output from a model that supports structured output but will not enable structured output, nor ask for an existing format like XML or JSON" is not really an interesting thing to benchmark, and that's reflected in how you have Gemini 2.5 Flash beating GPT-5.4.
I really hope no one reads that list and thinks it's an AI leaderboard in any generalizable sense.
Why not? I described this in more detail in other comments.
Even when using structured output, sometimes you want to define how the data should be displayed or formatted, especially for cases like chat bots, article writing, tool usage, calling external api's, parsing documents, etc.
Most models get this right. Also, this is just one failure mode of Claude.
Interesting benchmark. It is notable that Gemini-3-Flash outperforms 3.1 Pro. My experience using Flash via Opencode over the past month suggests it is quite underrated.
Needless to say, benchmarks are limited and impressions vary widely by problem domain, harness, written language, and personal preference (simplicity vs detail, tone, etc.). If personal experience is the only true measure, as with wine, solving this discovery gap is an interesting challenge (LLM sommelier!), even if model evolution eventually makes the choice trivial. (I prefer Gemini 3 for its wide knowledge, Sonnet 4.6 for balance, and GLM-5 for simplicity.)
It’s worth also comparing Qwen 3.5, it’s a very strong model. Different benchmarks give different results, but in general Qwen 3.5, GLM 5, and Kimi K2.5 are all excellent models, and not too far from current SOTA models in capability/intelligence. In my own non-coding tests, they were better than Gemini 3.1 flash. They’re comparable to the best American models from 6 months ago.
Not really related, but does anybody know if somebody's tracking same models performance on some benchmarks over time? Sometimes I feel like I'm being A/B tested.
Yeah, good tests are associated with cost. I'd like to see benchmarks on big messy codebases and how models perform on a clearly defined task that's easy to verify.
I was thinking that tokens spent in such case could also be an interesting measure, but some agent can do small useful refactoring. Although prompt could specify to do the minimal change required to achieve the goal.
> I’d encourage devs to use MiniMax, Kimi, etc for real world tasks that require intelligence.
I use MiniMax daily, mostly for coding tasks, using pi-coding-agent mostly.
> The down sides emerge pretty fast: much higher reasoning token use, slower outputs, and degradation that is palpable.
I don't care about token use, I pay per request in my cheap coding plan. I didn't notice slower outputs, it's even faster than Anthropic. Degradation is there for long sessions with long contexts, but that also happens with Anthropic models.
> Sadly, you do get what you pay for right now. However that doesn’t prevent you from saving tons through smart model routing, being smart about reasoning budgets, and using max output tokens wisely. And optimize your apps and prompts to reduce output tokens.
Exactly. For my use case, I get 1500 API requests every 5 hours for 10€ monthly. I never hit the limit, even during the intensive coding sessions.
What I notice is, while Opus and Sonnet feel better for synthetic benchmarks, it doesn't matter in the real world. I never put so much effort into coming up with a perfect problem spec like the ones in benchmarks. I don't craft my prompts for hours expecting the LLM to one-shot a working program for me. And that's exactly what all those benchmarks are doing. And that's where Anthropic tools shine in comparison to cheaper Chinese models.
When it comes to the real world, where I put my half-baked thoughts in broken English in a prompt and execute 20 prompts in half an hour, the difference between Opus, Sonnet, and MiniMax is minimal, if at all. There, I don't want to think about costs and token savings and switching between different Anthropic models. I just use MiniMax, and that's it.
Yes, MiniMax sometimes gets stuck. Then I switch to Opus to unblock it. But the same happens if I use Opus the whole session. It gets stuck eventually, and model switch is sometimes required to get a fresh perspective on the problem.
The only difference is, using Opus or Sonnet quickly eats up my budget, while with MiniMax I have basically unlimited usage (for my coding use case) for 10€ per month.
I've only been using free tokens for a year now. Gemini and they just dropped pro so I switched to minimax. Bit of a hurdle switching from Gemini-cli to kilo-cli, but now I can't really see too much difference.
If I was starting new projects I'd pay for a better model, but honestly I don't really know any different.
I've not ever used Claude and people seem to rave about it. Maybe its good, but I doubt its $200/month good.
When I hit issues with these lower models I think hard about creating the right tooling - agnostic to the harness and I feel like maybe its more work but I can carry those tools to any setup going forward. That's how it was in the early Linux days so why change what clearly works?
Kimi's been one of my goto options lately and it oftentimes outperforms both Claude and GPT in debugging, finding the actual problem immediately while the other two flail around drunkenly.
It does have some kind of horrible context consistency problem though, if you ask it to rewrite something verbatim it'll inject tiny random changes everywhere and potentially break it. That's something that other SOTA models haven't done for at least two years now and is a real problem. I can't trust it to do a full rewrite, just diffs.
No tooling, just manual use. When doing these comparisons I gather and format all the data they need to figure out the problem, and paste the same thing into all models so it's a pretty even eval.
I doubt Kimi would do well with most harnesses, its outputs are pretty chaotic in terms of formatting but the inteligence is definitely there.
> They're all slop when the complexity is higher than a mid-tech intermediate engineer though.
This right here. Value prop quickly goes out the window when you're building anything novel or hard. I feel that I'm still spending the same amount of time working on stuff, except that now I'm also spending money on models.
You could use this approach with DeepSeek as well. The innovation here is that you can generate a bunch of solutions, use a small model to pick promising candidates and then test them. Then you feed errors back to the generator model and iterate. In a way, it's sort of like a genetic algorithm that converges on a solution.
Right, this works with any models. To me, the most interesting part is that you can use a smaller model that you could run locally to get results comparable to SoTA models. Ultimately, I'd far prefer running local, even if slower, for the simple reason of having sovereignty over my data.
Being reliant on a service means you have to share whatever you're working on with the service, and the service provider decides what you can do, and make changes to their terms of service on a whim.
If locally running models can get to the point where they can be used as a daily driver, that solves the problem.
I think they mean that the DeepSeek API charges are less than it would cost for the electricity to run a local model.
Local model enthusiasts often assume that running locally is more energy efficient than running in a data center, but fail to take the economies of scale into account.
> Local model enthusiasts often assume that running locally is more energy efficient than running in a data center,
It is a well known 101 truism in /r/Localllama that local is rarely cheaper, unless run batched - then it is massively, 10x cheaper indeed.
> I think they mean that the DeepSeek API charges are less than it would cost for the electricity to run a local model.
Because it is hosted in China, where energy is cheap. In ex-USSR where I live it is inexpensive too, and keeping in mind that whole winter I had to use small space heater, due to inadequacy of my central heating, using local came out as 100% free.
Selling it back to the grid is something that is still possible but much, much less of a financially sound proposition than it was a few years ago because of regulatory capture by the utilities. In some places it is so bad that you get penalized for excess power. Local consumption is the fastest way to capitalize on this, more so if you can make money with that excess power.
The extent of that heavily depends on where you are. Where I live in NZ, the grid export rates are very low while the import rates are very high.
Our peak import rate is 3x higher than our solar export rate. In other words, we’d need to sell 3 kWh hours of energy to offset the cost of using 1 kWh at peak.
We’re currently in the process of accepting a quote for home batteries. The rates here highly incentivise maximising self-use.
I guess it mostly comes from using the model with batch-size = 1 locally, vs high batch size in a DC, since GPU consumption don't grow that much with batch size.
Note that while a local chatbot user will mostly be using batch-size = 1, it's not going to be true if they are running an agentic framework, so the gap is going to narrow or even reverse.
It means that the electricity you would have to pay if you did the computations yourself would be more expensive than paying them to do it. Part of thst has to do with the fact that China has cheap electricity, also due to their massive push into renewables. Part of that is just economies of scale. A big server farm can run more efficiently than your PC on average.
Well, also, LLM servers get much more efficient with request queue depth >1 - tokens per second per gpu are massively higher with 100 concurrents than 1 on eg vllm.
Yes, but the hardware they use for inference like Huawei Ascend 910C is less efficient than Nvidia H100 used in US due to the difference in the process node.
I find it's often very language and sector dependent. I still see a massive difference in systems programming (normally c++ and rust) between any open model I've tried and something like sonnet 4.5 (not really tried 4.6). And honestly, even the big models (like Opus 4.6) struggle in many cases.
Perhaps these things aren't well represented in the training data for these open models? Every local model I've tried (minimax2.5, GLM-4.7, Quen3, 3.5 and -coder variants) spend so much time trying to get something syntactically sensible and accepted by the compiler that when they've finished they barely seem to have any "momentum" left to actually solve the problems, as pretty much anything but the most trivial change ends up in another loop of actually trying to get it working again, often losing the intent of that change in the process.
My fear is that the solution here, having multiple instances all making the same changes for later comparison, would spend a huge amount of time beating it's head against compiler errors, types, memory allocation (NO DON'T JUST SPRINKLE IN A FEW MORE RAW "new" KEYWORDS DAMMIT) before it even gets to the "logic".
Having plenty of local GPU power I'd love to be able to actually use that, and I'm already wary about some of the training data use and it's interactions with the license of the code I'm "sending" to the cloud models...
You obviously have to try it out to see how it works for you, but the trick they use is pretty clever. When you ask an AI to write code, it doesn’t always get it right. Sometimes the code has bugs, sometimes it misunderstands the problem entirely. A naive way to address that is to generate a few solutions and test each one. The odds that at least one works go way up. ATLAS generates multiple attempts, running each through a test suite. Each retry also gets told what went wrong with the previous attempt, so it can try to avoid the same mistake.
But this can be pretty slow since you have to run the code in an isolated environment, check the outputs, wait for it to finish. Doing that for every candidate quickly adds up. So ATLAS has another shortcut for avoiding unnecessary testing. Instead of simply generating solutions and testing all of them, it tries to predict which one is most likely correct before running any tests.
ATLAS also asks the model for an embedding of what it just wrote which acts as a fingerprint. Two similar pieces of code will produce similar fingerprints. A well-written, confident solution will produce a different fingerprint than a confused, buggy one.
These fingerprints get fed into a separate, much smaller neural network called the Cost Field. This little network was trained ahead of time on examples where they already knew which solutions were correct and which were wrong. It learned to assign a score to each fingerprint. Correct solutions get a low score and incorrect ones get a high one.
So the process is to generate multiple solutions, get their fingerprints, score each one, and pick the lowest. Only that one gets tested. The Cost Field picks correctly about 88% of the time according to the repo.
Really intriguing set of techniques to improve accuracy by generating multiple solutions. Even with the work to predict the most likely solutions, it's not clear to me based on the description how this could all be done efficiently. Would definitely be really impressive if it pans out on real-world use cases. Will look to kick the tires on this if I can get some time.
Seems like the key insight is to train a small model that acts as a heuristic for embeddings that resemble quality code. I imagine a lot depends on how well this model is trained. And you could probably create specialized versions for different languages and domains.
Another interesting approach could be to use this set up with a language like Clojure or Common Lisp which facilitates interactive development. If you could hook up the agent directly to a REPL in a running program, then it could run tests with a lot less overhead.
I'm super confused. The small model "cost field" `rag-api/geometric_lens/cost_field.py` was trained on PASS_TASKS like "Write a function that counts vowels in a string." and FAIL_TASKS like "Write a function that converts a regular expression string to an NFA using Thompson's construction, then converts the NFA to a DFA.".
So it seems like it's a difficulty classifier for task descriptions written in English.
This is then used to score embeddings of Python code, which is a completely different distribution.
Presumably it's going to look at a simple solution, figure out it lands kinda close to simple problems in embedding space and pass it.
But none of this helps you solve harder problems, or distinguish between a simple solution which is wrong, and a more complex solution which is correct.
> But none of this helps you solve harder problems, or distinguish between a simple solution which is wrong, and a more complex solution which is correct.
It does because hallucinations and low confidence share characteristics in the embedding vector which the small neural learns to recognize. And the fact that it continuously learns based on the feedback loop is pretty slick.
I think the goal is to have a light heuristic that helps find plausibly useful solutions. They're still going to go through a testing phase as a next step, so this is just a very simple filter to decide what's even worth testing.
I tried to read the project documentation, but I got overwhelmed by the aimless AI generated documentation that has a nebulous goal of documenting absolutely everything, but never explaining anything.
If the author actually wanted to explain his project he should have started with something along the lines of "Inference-time learning is the act of updating model parameters while you are generating tokens. Inference time learning is cost prohibitive for LLMs due to the need to update billions of parameters. However, what if updating billions of parameters wasn't necessary to begin with? What if you could instead have a much smaller model that merely scores a bunch of candidate output tokens? That model could be small enough for inference time learning to become viable and that's exactly what ATLAS does to achieve a 74.6% pass rate in LiveCodeBench and thereby outperforms Claude Sonnet with a small 14B open weight model that can be run locally on your $500 GPU."
This would have primed the reader to know what to look for. Instead you got this insurmountable wall of distractions.
Despite skepticism I love to see experiments like that. If we all are able to run an open source model locally on mid-high end machines I'd be very happy.
Not necessarily kill; but it will slowly push them off the critical path. Local agents can delegate to remote sub agents as needed but should default to local processing for low cost and latency reasons.
I think the notion of a one size fits all model that is a bit like a sports car in the sense that just get the biggest/fastest/best one is overkill; you use bigger models when needed. But they use a lot of resources and cost you a lot. A lot of AI work isn't solving important math or algorithm problems. Or leet coding exercises. Most AI work is mundane plumbing work, summarizing, a bit of light scripting/programming, tool calling, etc. With skills and guard rails, you actually want agents to follow those rather than get too creative. And you want them to work relatively quickly and not overthink things. Latency is important. You can actually use guard rails to decide when to escalate to bigger models and when not to.
I hope so too, but I think it's wishful thinking. Be prepared for the mother of all financial bailouts from the world governments to make sure that doesn't happen
I can understand why banks got bailed out by the US gov in 2008, but why would a government feel the need to bail out AI labs?
I hope you are not going to say, "to avoid a global recession or depression caused by the popping of the AI bubble". That would be unnecessary and harmful (in its second-order effects), and governments do have advisors who are competent enough in economics to advise against such a move.
Can you understand why banks were bailed out to the extent of protecting shareholders?
In the UK the first bank to go, Northern Rock, was simply taken over by the government. The shareholders got nothing. The bailout of Lloyds bank required the government taking a 40% stake. This is the way to go - if you need a bailout there should be a cost to the shareholders. otherwise you are just privatising profit and nationalising risk.
Not that UK regulation was great all round or the bailout perfect. It certainly failed to prevent the crisis which could have been done (no doubt the same applies in many countries). I looked at Northern Rock's accounts some time (an year, maybe?) before the crisis and was horrified by their reliance on interbank lending. it was obvious they could not cope with a rise in rates.
So far, the country I know best, the US, has been competent enough to avoid massive corporate bailouts except the aforementioned banks in 2008 and GM. The bailout of GM was not motivated by a desire to avoid a recession when a bubble pops.
If the AI labs become very influential and powerful, Washington might nationalize them, but that would be very different from bailing them out because they have become unprofitable and cannot attract additional investment from the private sector.
You forgot about the $9b bailout to Intel in August of 2025.
With the recent OpenAi deal with the government I am certain they would throw tons of money at OpenAi if it got real bad. But with upcoming IPO where they are expected to be valued at $840b, we would be a LONG way from them needing a bailout. Well past this current admin.
Despite politics, TARP was arguably an economic success story for the US treasury despite public sentiment. Whether it created moral hazard or not I suppoae is up for debate.
GM on the other hand should have been left to die.
However, I was obliquely referring to the open transactionality and patronage encouraged by the current administration, and how the AI / big tech players have, with few exceptions, gleefully joined in.
Unless they run out of money for bribes, I think it's inevitable that current government will bend over backwards to prop them up.
"but why would a government feel the need to bail out AI labs"
Oh easy, with all the drones and sensors, AI means military power. Those who dare opposing the bailout of the local AI gigants want the other side to win.
It'd be nice if they do, but I don't really see how. Training these open-weight local LLMs is still insanely expensive and hard to do, even if it's cheaper and faster than what the big corps are doing.
I don't get the financial motive for someone to keep funding these open-weight model training programs other than just purposefully trying to kill the big AI providers.
This has been my theory for a while: during this autumn Apple will release a version of Apple Intelligence that runs locally and works better than ChatGPT. They will do this because 1) they do not have an offering in AI yet 2) they have amazing hardware that even now almost can pull it off on open models and this will not be possible to replicate on android for a long time (presumably)
This will crush OpenAI.
Note: I am not talking about coding here - it will take a while longer but when it is optimized to the bone and llms output has stabilized, you will be running that too on local hardware. Cost will come down for Claude and friends too but why pay 5 when you can have it for free?
> This has been my theory for a while: during this autumn Apple will release a version of Apple Intelligence that runs locally and works better than ChatGPT.
In this theory, can you explain why Apple has announced it’s paying Google for Gemini too?
Eventually, this may be true. This autumn? Highly unlikely.
Unless there are some really, really major shortcuts found in inference, then it's always going to be hard to run a really great model locally. The costs of the PC + electric will usually be crazy compared to a $20/mo Claude sub.
They won't for coding and images, but they will socially. Everyone I know who has invested in home AI use is mostly using it for 'things that might get you banned/limited'.
It won’t be meaningful considering the architecture: it’s a harness around the model that generated multiple solutions in multiple passes using the test to measure compliance and repair broken solutions. The resulting program won’t be streamed to you because it has existed for minutes as it goes through the cycle. It’s more for an asynchronous use-case.
I, too, was interested because I am always eager to use local models in my claw-like. It looks like this could be useful for an async portion of the harness but it wouldn’t work in interactive contexts.
Very cool ensemble of techniques, particularly because they’re so accessible. I think I will use this form for reusable portions of web browsing functionality in my personal agent.
This is specifically an experiment using ablation and multiple passes to improve the end result. Other techniques have been found that do this (like multiple passes through the same layers). But this technique - for this one specific model - seems to be both more performant, but also takes much longer, and requires more complexity. It's unlikely most people would use this technique, but it's interesting.
74% on LCB from a single 5060 Ti. I've been paying Anthropic per task and this guy is running it on electricity money, 20 minutes per task is rough for anything interactive though.
the headline is pretty stupid - compares a model to a GPU that models run on. Somewhere in that data centre, some part of Sonnet infferencing runs on a 900$ GPU or maybe even cheaper Google tensor
On that topic, anyone here got a decent local coding AI setup for a 12GB VRAM system? I have a Radeon 6700 XT and would like to run autocomplete on it. I can fit some models in the memory and they run quick but are just a tad too dumb. I have 64GB of system ram so I can run larger models and they are at least coherent, but really slow compared to running from VRAM.
Not the answer that you are looking for, but I am a fellow AMD GPU owner, so I want to share my experience.
I have a 9070 XT, which has 16GB of VRAM.
My understanding from reading around a bunch of forums is that the smallest quant you want to go with is Q4. Below that, the compression starts hurting the results quite a lot, especially for agentic coding. The model might eventually start missing brackets, quotes, etc.
I tried various AI + VRAM calculators but nothing was as on the point as Huggingface's built-in functionality. You simply sign up and configure in the settings [1] which GPU you have, so that when you visit a model page, you immediately see which of the quants fits in your card.
From the open source models out there, Qwen3.5 is the best right now. unsloth produces nice quants for it and even provides guidelines [2] on how to run them locally.
The 6-bit version of Qwen3.5 9B would fit nicely in your 6700 XT, but at 9B parameters, it probably isn't as smart as you would expect it to run.
Which model have you tried locally? Also, out of curiosity, what is your host configuration?
No? You can run any model that fits in its VRAM, and you can run larger models with layer/MoE offloading. Ask an AI what the best models you can run on that card are, then ask it for newer models than that. Ask what tuning options to pass to llama.cpp, and what the auto-tuning options are. Use ROCm builds.
It looks like your card has 16GB VRAM? Start with Qwen 3.5 9B Unsloth GGUFs (UD-Q6_K_XL) and branch out from there.
No, but yes? OmniCoder 9B at Q6 fits on my 9070 XT with 200k+ tokens of context, and it works pretty well with OpenCode. It is for sure the best local model that I've managed to squeeze onto my GPU, and it even works at 120k context at Q3 on an 8GB RX 580 GPU.
I can't imagine trying to using this model on either GPU for real work. I can use much bigger and faster models on the $3 Chutes subscription or $10 OpenCode Go subscription.
Even so, I am still excited. I don't feel like there was even a model worth using with a tool like OpenCode 6 to 9 months ago. I like the way things are heading, and I am looking forward to seeing how capable coding models of this size are in another 6 to 9 months!
Well, this specific solution was only set up on specific hardware, and is Nvidia dependent, as the readme stares.
That doesn’t mean the 9070XT can’t do AI stuff, quite the opposite. ROCm gets better all the time. There are many AI workloads you can do on AMD cards.
Is it a card I would choose if I was primarily working on AI? Absolutely not. But it is the card I own and it’s been a great value for gaming.
Unfortunately AMD is much worse with supporting AI features like FSR4 on older hardware generations, despite the capability and leaked INT8 models being there. Totally unlike NVIDIA.
It’s absurd I have to use open source programs to get INT8 FSR4 support.
If anyone else was hoping this was using Q8 internally and that converted to Q4 it could fit in 12GB VRAM: unfortunately it's already at Q4_K_M (~9GB) and the the 16GB requirement is from other parts not a 14B@8bit+kv cache/etc you might guess.
Claude Code has been bleh or meh at best in my experience. There's so many posts on HN fawning about it lately that it could only be a guerrilla marketing campaign.
You still need to give it precise context and instructions when dealing with things that are not web apps or some other software cliche.
The reasoning is great in opus, unbeatable at the moment.
I understand what you mean, it becomes disappointing on more niche or specific work.
It’s honestly a good thing to see these models are not really intelligent yet.
I still don't trust any AI enough to generate or edit code, except for some throwaway experiments, because every time I tried it's been inefficient or too verbose or just plain wrong.
I use it for reviewing existing code, specifically for a components-based framework for Godot/GDScript at [0]. You can view the AGENTS.md and see that it's a relatively simple enough project: Just for 2D games and fairly modular so the AI can look at each file/class individually and have to cross-reference maybe 1-3 dependencies/dependents at most at any time during a single pass.
I've been using Codex, and it's helped me catch a lot of bugs that would have taken a long time on my own to even notice at all. Most of my productivity and the commits from the past couple months are thanks to that.
Claude on the other hand, oh man… It just wastes my time. It's had way more gaffes than Codex, on the exact same code and prompts.
I use Codex regularly and Claude is shit in comparison, from its constant "Oops you're right!!" backtracking to its crap Electron app (if their AI is so good why can't they make a fucking native app for each OS?)
Hell right freakin now I asked it to implement something and got a weird "Something went wrong" API error
I use both, read what I need to read and fix small issues myself. Both Agents are pure magic and none of their issues warrant a tantrum on a public forum.
The cost field approach is interesting because it mirrors something developers do intuitively — glancing at code and getting a gut feeling about whether it's correct before running it. We pattern-match on structure, naming, and control flow constantly.
The 88% accuracy on picking correct solutions from embeddings alone suggests there's a real signal in how "well-formed" code looks in embedding space. The question is whether this transfers across domains — would a cost field trained on Python benchmarks generalize to Rust or Go? Or does each language need its own fingerprint model?
The bigger implication is that as base models get commoditized, the orchestration layer (generate, filter, test, iterate) becomes the real differentiator. The model itself is increasingly interchangeable — it's the pipeline around it that determines quality.
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