Hacking is a human activity and as such will follow the same patterns and cultural cycles you would expect.
1. A Space Becomes Wide Open.
2. Legends Are Made Taming The Space.
3. Others Rush In And Establish A Second Tier.
4. Then A Third Tier.
5. Then A Fourth Tier.
6. Then A Fifth Tier.
7. Eventually, A New Crop Decides They Don't Want To be Tier 6 Because They Hate The Output Of Tier 5.
8. A Few Brilliant Minds Focus The General Angst Into "The Better Way" aka "A Space Becomes Wide Open"
GOTO 1;
Good, bad - this is how it has and will always work. Good output is rare and imitated to death over time. Every genre exists because someone did good work in it. Someone, somewhere, once wrote a good country western song. :)
I've been thinking of this in the context of YCombinator. The cost of launching a start up is low with a mix of wise guidance and smart, talented, relentlessly resourceful founders. So the space is wide open. PG and co are taming it and building legend and second tier imitators in the process. This is good. Why? Solely because the work coming out of the companies they fund is good.
The second tier companies are producing good work too. However, there will be a third and then a fourth and eventually the quality will dip. It won't be about building, it'll be about flipping - and flipping will fall in on itself in time.
At that point, either the whole thing becomes a smoking hole in the ground (unlikely) or there will be a reaction against it by the best and brightest. They will accomplish a piece of what PG and co set out to do, but couldn't because their structure didn't inherently support it. The "reaction against" will accomplish it, even though it will itself be flawed in some way and sow the seeds of its eventual demise as it ascends.
I think lamenting a decline is the wrong focus. Do good work yourself. Be the change you want to see, or be the spirit of what you value. So long as you are, it can't die. If it is dying and its outside of you, what was it to you anyway?
1. A Space Becomes Wide Open.
2. Legends Are Made Taming The Space.
3. Others Rush In And Establish A Second Tier.
4. Then A Third Tier.
5. Then A Fourth Tier.
6. Then A Fifth Tier.
7. Eventually, A New Crop Decides They Don't Want To be Tier 6 Because They Hate The Output Of Tier 5.
8. A Few Brilliant Minds Focus The General Angst Into "The Better Way" aka "A Space Becomes Wide Open"
GOTO 1;
Good, bad - this is how it has and will always work. Good output is rare and imitated to death over time. Every genre exists because someone did good work in it. Someone, somewhere, once wrote a good country western song. :)
I've been thinking of this in the context of YCombinator. The cost of launching a start up is low with a mix of wise guidance and smart, talented, relentlessly resourceful founders. So the space is wide open. PG and co are taming it and building legend and second tier imitators in the process. This is good. Why? Solely because the work coming out of the companies they fund is good.
The second tier companies are producing good work too. However, there will be a third and then a fourth and eventually the quality will dip. It won't be about building, it'll be about flipping - and flipping will fall in on itself in time.
At that point, either the whole thing becomes a smoking hole in the ground (unlikely) or there will be a reaction against it by the best and brightest. They will accomplish a piece of what PG and co set out to do, but couldn't because their structure didn't inherently support it. The "reaction against" will accomplish it, even though it will itself be flawed in some way and sow the seeds of its eventual demise as it ascends.
I think lamenting a decline is the wrong focus. Do good work yourself. Be the change you want to see, or be the spirit of what you value. So long as you are, it can't die. If it is dying and its outside of you, what was it to you anyway?