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NSA and FBI have a strong history of lying to the public. I would say that makes #2 more possible.

It's also in their interest to position the threat as a national security issue because that's where they derive their power to regularly break the law through spying and other tactics as well as their over-inflated budgets. If the threat is coming from a hostile nation it helps their narrative better than a disgruntled employee or someone doing it for lulz.



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