Detecting an unnatural decrease in the value of currency is not as simple as tracking prices and standard of living. You need to track productivity too.
Normally, in an economy that is growing in productivity, your purchasing power should be growing, not merely staying the same. If your productivity increases by 3% per year, then you should be able to buy 3% more goods and services every year (assuming you work the same hours).
If the supply of money does not change, then increases in productivity will be reflected in lower prices. If you made 100 widgets last year for $100 ($1/widget), and this year you made 103 widgets because you got better at it (productivity increase), the price of your widgets would be $100/103widgets = $.97/widget if people spent the same amount of money or portion of their income on widgets. Your goods would be cheaper for customers, or, put another way, your customers would be a little richer in widgets. If others in the economy experienced the same productivity growth, you would also be richer. The $100 you made producing widgets would buy you more of other people's goods. Your standard of living depends on your own productivity and everyone else's. If your productivity is average, and the average is growing, then your standard of living should be growing too.
Thus, if the money supply were relatively constant as it would be under a gold standard, prices should naturally fall as productivity increases, while wages should be constant (assuming no population change).
When the money supply is growing, it is a lot harder to make these calculations and know what your money should be worth. This is an irritation at the personal, consumer level, you don't know exactly how much the government is screwing you, but at the macro level, it causes bubbles. When people don't know the value of money, they spend unwisely, paying too much for a thing. The housing bubble was caused because people thought that money was worth less than it was. (They can be forgiven for this mistake because it was reasonable. If money were worth more, why were the banks selling it so cheaply?) As a result, they overpaid for houses and builders built too many of them. By the time the mistake was discovered, there were too many houses on the market and their prices dropped suddenly.
if the money supply were relatively constant as it would be under a gold standard, prices should naturally fall as productivity increases, while wages should be constant
...which would be a bad thing, because if the purchasing power of your money grows even when it's parked under your mattress, it's a lot harder for entrepreneurs to attract investment.
I would agree that the Fed has been too loose with the money supply over the past twenty years or so, and that this appears to be a structural problem with the central banks; George Cooper makes a good case in The Origin of Financial Crises. But I don't think the solution lies in a return to the gold standard.
Normally, in an economy that is growing in productivity, your purchasing power should be growing, not merely staying the same. If your productivity increases by 3% per year, then you should be able to buy 3% more goods and services every year (assuming you work the same hours).
If the supply of money does not change, then increases in productivity will be reflected in lower prices. If you made 100 widgets last year for $100 ($1/widget), and this year you made 103 widgets because you got better at it (productivity increase), the price of your widgets would be $100/103widgets = $.97/widget if people spent the same amount of money or portion of their income on widgets. Your goods would be cheaper for customers, or, put another way, your customers would be a little richer in widgets. If others in the economy experienced the same productivity growth, you would also be richer. The $100 you made producing widgets would buy you more of other people's goods. Your standard of living depends on your own productivity and everyone else's. If your productivity is average, and the average is growing, then your standard of living should be growing too.
Thus, if the money supply were relatively constant as it would be under a gold standard, prices should naturally fall as productivity increases, while wages should be constant (assuming no population change).
When the money supply is growing, it is a lot harder to make these calculations and know what your money should be worth. This is an irritation at the personal, consumer level, you don't know exactly how much the government is screwing you, but at the macro level, it causes bubbles. When people don't know the value of money, they spend unwisely, paying too much for a thing. The housing bubble was caused because people thought that money was worth less than it was. (They can be forgiven for this mistake because it was reasonable. If money were worth more, why were the banks selling it so cheaply?) As a result, they overpaid for houses and builders built too many of them. By the time the mistake was discovered, there were too many houses on the market and their prices dropped suddenly.