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Didn't that deflationary spiral happen in Japan? The lost decade?


Hasn't Japan been printing tremendous amounts of money to try and prevent it, with no end in sight? At what point does that get discredited?


That's exactly why it's called a deflationary spiral: once you're in it, it's hard to get out even with aggressive monetary policy.


Maybe the problem is that they're trying to hold asset prices up at a completely bananas level. And because it's such a crazy high level, the only way people will hold them is constant money printing.

Perhaps letting the prices return to levels that are based on fundamentals instead of constant printing would solve the problem. There's no guarantee it becomes a spiral, especially if the deflation is mild.

Mild deflation with zero interest rates is roughly the same as zero inflation with slightly higher rates or mild inflation and moderate interest rates. There's very little technical difference between the three so long as the delta is only 2% or so.

In other words, the world wouldn't grind to a halt with 2% deflation. It's 20% deflation that causes the spiral, not 2%. Unless of course you're so heavily financialized that 2% makes all your models blow up and your banking sector is so entrenched in and around the government that they can hold an entire country -- if not the world -- hostage.




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